https://asylumstats.co.uk Follow YOUR money. UK asylum costs, routes, and demographic impact. Every figure sourced, every claim checked. en-GB https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-08-23 Sun, 23 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release The site moved onto the shared visual system used across the network. Five published claims were corrected: the 190,809 safe-and-legal humanitarian grants for year ending March 2026 are 77 per cent in-country extensions rather than arrivals, and out-of-country grants fell from 58,459 to 43,620; the 107,003 people in supported accommodation was the 31 December 2025 quarter end, not the current 97,519 at 31 March 2026, and it had been understating every area's share by about 9 per cent; and the claim that 70 nationalities see grant rates rise after appeal was never right, the figure being 101 of 105. Separately, the scheduled data refresh had failed on every run since at least 13 July, across five distinct faults, and now runs Monday and Thursday and deploys what it commits. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-08-23 Sun, 23 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release The projection model was re-fitted and tested by fitting cohort change ratios on Census 2001 to 2011, forecasting 2021, and scoring against the actual Census 2021, so the fitting window never touches the target. On the White British share it scores mean absolute error 1.56pp with a bias of +0.05pp across 285 areas. The settings it replaces scored 2.82pp with a bias of -2.13pp on the same test, meaning the previous model projected change too fast rather than too slow. Shrinkage toward the national ratio is K=25 and the growth ceiling is 1.65 per decade, both chosen on that test. Counts move with it: 86 local authorities are projected below a 50% White British share by 2051 rather than 109, 59 of them currently majority, and Birmingham's 2051 share is 14.9% rather than 10.7%. The backcast comparison with NEWETHPOP is withdrawn; the defensible comparison is out-of-sample against out-of-sample, this model at 1.56pp across 285 areas against NEWETHPOP at 3.95pp across 296. Only a one-decade horizon has been tested. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-08-21 Fri, 21 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release The Home Office weekly time series was 17 days past its own publication cadence and had been left behind by a refresh job that never included it. Now current to 20 August 2026. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/true-cost-of-asylum/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/true-cost-of-asylum/#2026-08-13 Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding The total annual cost of the UK asylum system is around £8.0 billion, or £234 per income taxpayer per year. The largest component is now an audited figure rather than an estimate: the Home Office spent £4,181 million on asylum support, resettlement and accommodation in 2025-26, down from £4,513 million. Detention is the one line moving the other way, up 21.3%. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/109-areas-minority-wbi-2051/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/109-areas-minority-wbi-2051/#2026-08-13 Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding 86 English local authorities are projected to have a White British population below 50% by 2051. 59 of those have a White British majority today. This is not a London story: Bolton, Pendle, Oldham, Thurrock and Broxbourne all cross the threshold. Recomputed 13 August 2026 on a model recalibrated against an out-of-sample test, replacing an earlier count of 109. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-06-11 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release MOJ tribunal statistics for Q4 2025/26, covering January to March 2026 in the First-tier Tribunal Immigration and Asylum Chamber. These are financial-year quarters and are not interchangeable with the calendar quarters used for Home Office claims, decisions and support elsewhere on this site. Next edition 10 September 2026, covering April to June 2026. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/returns-39k-vs-manifesto/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/returns-39k-vs-manifesto/#2026-05-27 Wed, 27 May 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding The Home Office's headline return figure for year ending March 2026 is 39,000 people removed from the UK. The Reform UK 2024 manifesto wanted approximately 250,000 returns a year. Labour's Border Security Command produced a 13 percent rise in enforced removals and a 5 percent rise in voluntary returns, but no order-of-magnitude shift. The 39,000 ceiling is structural, produced by limited return-agreement coverage, tribunal pipeline length, and identity verification constraints. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/pakistan-asylum-17x-surge/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/pakistan-asylum-17x-surge/#2026-05-27 Wed, 27 May 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Pakistani UK asylum decisions rose from 989 in 2022 to 17,592 in 2025, a 17.8 times increase in three years. Initial grant rate fell from 60 percent (2022) to 32 percent (2025) as throughput rose. The true grant rate after appeals stabilises at 49.8 percent. Pakistan is now the largest single source of UK asylum claims. The Pakistani political situation since 2023 (Imran Khan jailed, PTI persecuted, blasphemy laws, religious minority attacks) is the demand-side driver. The Home Office's own Country Policy and Information Note February 2026 documents the case-handling framework. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/home-office-appeal-uplift-may2026/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/home-office-appeal-uplift-may2026/#2026-05-27 Wed, 27 May 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Of 105 nationalities tracked in the Asy_D04 outcome analysis, 101 see asylum grant rates rise between initial decision and final outcome after appeal, by an average of 14.6 percentage points. Sri Lanka 26.9 percent initial to 60.1 percent after appeals. Iraq 30.9 percent to 57.0 percent. Russia 57.8 percent to 79.4 percent. The published initial grant rate of 39 percent for YE March 2026 understates the true protection rate by roughly 14 percentage points. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-05-21 Thu, 21 May 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release The Home Office quarterly release. Routes, claims, decisions, backlog, support and returns updated to the year ending March 2026, with the accommodation snapshot at 31 March 2026. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release Empirical TFRs from ONS Linked Births 2024. White British TFR 1.31, Pakistani 2.52. National ASFRs by age band. IMD deprivation fertility gradient 1.66x. 567,460 births analysed. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release Home Office outcome analysis (Dec 2025) integrated. 103 nationalities with initial + appeal-adjusted grant rates. Average uplift +14.1pp. Iran 67% initial to 85% after appeals. Sri Lanka 27% to 59%. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release Major model upgrade. Census 2011 DC2101EW (18 groups, observed) replaces NEWETHPOP proportional splitting. MAE improved 2.45 to 1.71pp. Per-LA ethnic migration rates from Census 2021. Scenario selector on every place page. Cost calculator. Backlog clock. Postcode resolver. Grant rate appeal toggle. 25 findings live. Withdrawn 13 August 2026: the 1.71pp was a backcast that fitted its ratios on the same two Censuses it was then scored against, so it measured the model's guardrails rather than its accuracy, and its bias ran the opposite way to the truth. The figures above are recorded as reported at the time and should not be quoted. Superseded by v8.0 on 23 August 2026. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/three-providers-monopoly/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/three-providers-monopoly/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Serco, Mears Group, and Clearsprings Ready Homes operate regional monopolies over asylum accommodation under the AASC. Each controls a geographic region. All hotel procurement, dispersal housing, and support services flow through three companies. The 10-year contract: £15.3 billion. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/roma-gypsy-tracking/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/roma-gypsy-tracking/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Our model separates Roma (98,785) and Gypsy/Irish Traveller (63,348) from the White Other category for the first time. Roma are concentrated in London boroughs (Hammersmith 0.81%, Haringey 0.76%). Gypsy/Travellers are concentrated in rural LAs (Maidstone 0.58%, Fenland 0.57%). These populations were previously invisible in demographic projections. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/ribble-valley-vs-blackpool/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/ribble-valley-vs-blackpool/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Ribble Valley: 31 asylum seekers, rate 4.7 per 10,000, crime 32.4 per 1,000, ASC spend £442/capita. Blackpool: 577 asylum seekers, rate 40.0 per 10,000, crime 142.8, ASC spend £724. Same county. Same region. Same prime provider. Different universe. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/north-west-one-in-five/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/north-west-one-in-five/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding 20,864 people on asylum support in the North West. 19.5% of the 107,003 national total at 31 December 2025. Liverpool (2,189), Manchester (1,846), Rochdale (1,359), Bolton (1,281), Oldham (1,111). Lancashire carries its share too: Blackburn (649), Preston (554), Burnley (461). The region that voted most heavily for change carries the heaviest load. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/hotel-budget-share/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/hotel-budget-share/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding 197 asylum hotels house approximately 31,000 people, 29% of the 107,003 on the supported asylum population at 31 December 2025. Hotels took around 76% of the cost of the accommodation contracts in the first seven months of 2024-25, £1.3 billion of an estimated £1.7 billion. Dispersal housing is roughly 10x cheaper per person per night. The hotel-heavy model is a policy choice, not a necessity. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/grant-rate-league-table/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/grant-rate-league-table/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding First full grant rate league table from Home Office decision data. 107 nationalities. 11 have 75%+ initial grant rates (genuine refugees). 41 have under 25% (overwhelmingly refused). The gap between the two groups is the clearest evidence that the system processes genuine refugees and economic migrants alike, then treats them identically until decision. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/fertility-rate-reality-check/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/fertility-rate-reality-check/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding ONS 2024 births data reveals White British fertility has fallen to an empirical TFR of approximately 1.31. well below the 1.55 assumed by academic models and the 1.71 implied by Census 2021 child-woman ratios. Pakistani fertility remains at 2.52. The fertility gap between ethnic groups is wider than any published model uses. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/fertility-deprivation-gradient/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/fertility-deprivation-gradient/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding ONS 2024 births data by IMD deprivation decile: most deprived quintile accounts for 25.5% of births, least deprived just 15.4%. Deprivation-fertility ratio: 1.66x. Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations are concentrated in deprived areas. Part of the apparent ethnic fertility gap is poverty, not culture. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/family-reunion-surge/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/family-reunion-surge/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Refugee Family Reunion visas surged to 18,869 in the year ending December 2025, up 153% from the pre-COVID baseline of 7,456 in 2019. Every granted asylum claim generates the right to bring dependants. With grant rates rising after appeal, the family reunion pipeline is accelerating. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/concentration-top-10-areas/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/concentration-top-10-areas/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding 21,205 of the 107,003 people on asylum support at 31 December 2025 are concentrated in just 10 local authorities. Glasgow leads with 3,835 (rate 59 per 10,000). Birmingham: 2,637. Liverpool: 2,189. Meanwhile dozens of councils take zero. The dispersal system is not dispersing. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/blackpool-worst-every-metric/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/blackpool-worst-every-metric/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Blackpool ranks worst or near-worst across every domain we track: highest crime rate (142.8 per 1,000), highest ASC spend per capita (£724), fastest SEND growth, and an asylum rate of 40 per 10,000. 577 people on asylum support. One town. Every pressure at once. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/blackburn-minority-wb-2028/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/blackburn-minority-wb-2028/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Blackburn with Darwen: 56.9% White British in Census 2021. Projected below 50% by approximately 2027. Pendle follows around 2034, Preston around 2037, Burnley around 2050. Four Lancashire towns crossing the same threshold within a generation. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/birmingham-demographic-transformation/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/birmingham-demographic-transformation/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Birmingham's White British population fell from 53% (2011) to 43% (2021). Ten percentage points gone in a single decade. Hamilton-Perry projects 14.9% by 2051. Pakistani fertility (TFR 2.52) against White British fertility (TFR 1.31) does the rest. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/arab-population-projections/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/arab-population-projections/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Our model is the first to project the Arab ethnic group separately. Census 2021 counts 319,452 people identifying as Arab. previously hidden inside 'Other ethnic group'. In areas like Brent (5.3% to 12.9%) and Westminster (7.6% to 9.2%), the Arab population is projected to grow faster than most other groups. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/albanian-white-other-finding/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/albanian-white-other-finding/#2026-04-14 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Census 2021 data shows 89.7% of people identifying as Albanian classify themselves as White Other. Albanian asylum seekers (the second-largest claiming nationality with 57,360 decisions) reduce White British percentage but do NOT increase ethnic minority statistics. This distinction matters for accurate demographic analysis. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/shift-share-what-drives-change/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/shift-share-what-drives-change/#2026-04-11 Sat, 11 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Shift-share decomposition of 305 local authorities shows that 84% of Burnley's White British decline is explained by the national trend, not local immigration. Most areas are changing because the whole country is changing, not because of exceptional local migration. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/newethpop-validation-2021/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/newethpop-validation-2021/#2026-04-11 Sat, 11 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding The NEWETHPOP cohort-component model, the UK's most cited academic ethnic projection, over-predicted White British population share in 282 out of 296 local authorities. NEWETHPOP MAE against the Census 2021 actuals: 3.95pp across 296 areas. A previous version of this piece set that against a 1.71pp score for our own model and claimed we were 33 per cent more accurate. That comparison has been withdrawn: our 1.71pp came from a backcast fitted on the same two Censuses it was tested against, so it measured our own guardrails rather than forecast accuracy. On a genuine out-of-sample test, fitting 2001 to 2011 and forecasting 2021, our model scores 1.56pp. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/small-boats-41k-2025/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/small-boats-41k-2025/#2026-04-10 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding 41,472 people were detected arriving via small boat across the English Channel in 2025. Small boats now account for 89.2% of all illegal entry routes. The Rwanda scheme was scrapped. The boats keep coming. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/send-demand-demographic-areas/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/send-demand-demographic-areas/#2026-04-10 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Across 25 tracked local authorities, the average five-year growth in Education, Health and Care Plans is 42%. Areas experiencing faster demographic change, including Blackpool (+51%), Preston (+47%), and Doncaster (+45%), tend to show above-average SEND demand growth. Multiple factors drive this pattern. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/daily-hotel-cost-5-77m/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/daily-hotel-cost-5-77m/#2026-04-10 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding The House of Commons Library puts Home Office spending on asylum hotel accommodation at £2.1 billion in 2024/25, equivalent to £5.77 million per day, out of £4 billion on asylum support in total. That is down 17 per cent on 2023/24, when hotels cost £3 billion, or £8.3 million a day. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/combined-pressure-top-councils/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/combined-pressure-top-councils/#2026-04-10 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding A composite index across asylum dispersal, demographic change, crime rates, SEND demand, and social care spend places Blackpool, Preston, and Blackburn with Darwen as the three most pressured local authorities in our tracking set. No other UK transparency platform combines these five domains at local authority level. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/backlog-64k-awaiting-decision/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/backlog-64k-awaiting-decision/#2026-04-10 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding The initial-decision backlog stands at 64,426. Every person in that queue costs money: hotel beds, support payments, legal aid. The Home Office made 39,395 initial decisions in Q4 2025 but 20,725 new claims arrived in the same quarter. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/asylum-dispersal-crime-correlation/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/asylum-dispersal-crime-correlation/#2026-04-10 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding Among 25 tracked local authorities, areas with higher asylum dispersal rates tend to have higher police recorded crime rates (r = 0.68). However, both metrics correlate strongly with the Index of Multiple Deprivation, so the association likely reflects deprivation-driven placement policy rather than a causal link between asylum seekers and crime. https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/asc-spend-demographic-change/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/findings/asc-spend-demographic-change/#2026-04-10 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:00:00 GMT Finding The five councils with the fastest White British population decline spend an average of £612 per capita on adult social care, compared to £472 for the five with the slowest change. Ageing populations, deprivation, and demographic transition all contribute to higher social care demand. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-02-26 Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release Year ending December 2025 figures published, including 107,200 people on support and 31,000 in hotels. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2026-01-23 Fri, 23 Jan 2026 09:00:00 GMT Release Home Affairs Committee report captures the official count of hotels in use as of 5 January 2026. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2025-11-27 Thu, 27 Nov 2025 09:00:00 GMT Release Latest public local release remained the year ending September 2025, with Glasgow still highest by count. https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/ https://asylumstats.co.uk/releases/#2025-06-12 Thu, 12 Jun 2025 09:00:00 GMT Release Average daily hotel cost for 2024/25 published at GBP 5.77 million.