Trend
+32Latest quarter change
+82Change across series
27Official data points
Amber Valley
Linsey Farnsworth
124 people on asylum support in Amber Valley
Rank 168 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.4 per 10,000 puts Amber Valley in the 60th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 124 people at £107 per person per day is about £4.8M a year.
What asylum costs Amber Valley
£2.8Mestimated hotel costs/year
£317Ksubsistence payments/year
£149KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 124 people on asylum support in Amber Valley(0.13% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.
Amber Valley: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Exact values
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Mar 2014 | 1 |
| Jun 2014 | 1 |
| Sept 2014 | 1 |
| Dec 2014 | 1 |
| Mar 2015 | 1 |
| Sept 2017 | 1 |
| Dec 2017 | 1 |
| Mar 2018 | 1 |
| Jun 2018 | 1 |
| Sept 2018 | 1 |
| Dec 2018 | 1 |
| Mar 2019 | 1 |
| Jun 2019 | 1 |
| Sept 2019 | 1 |
| Dec 2019 | 1 |
| Sept 2022 | 2 |
| Dec 2022 | 2 |
| Mar 2023 | 2 |
| Jun 2023 | 2 |
| Sept 2023 | 3 |
| Jun 2024 | 6 |
| Sept 2024 | 8 |
| Dec 2024 | 8 |
| Mar 2025 | 22 |
| Jun 2025 | 38 |
| Sept 2025 | 51 |
| Dec 2025 | 83 |
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation123
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine330
Afghan programme3
Resettlement cumulative6
Population context
All pathways total457
Share of local population0.35%
Ethnic composition projection
Amber Valley: White British 95.0% (2021) to 89.4% (2051). 80% CI: 89.3, 91.3%.
Ethnic composition: Amber Valley
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Amber Valley
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Amber Valley ranges from58.0% to 81.2%by 2051. That is a 23.2pp spread.
Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.3% (2021) → 0.7% (2051). Christian 48.2% → 9.2%.
Religion: Amber Valley
ChristianNo religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
3.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.15). 98.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Amber Valley
UK-bornForeign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 7.4% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black14.5% internal, 4.7% international
white other10.8% internal, 2.3% international
mixed12% internal, 0.8% international
asian11% internal, 1.4% international
other6.6% internal, 3.3% international
white british7.3% internal, 0.2% international
Why Amber Valley is changing
-1.4ppWhite British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Amber Valley on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British59.1%
Mixed70.1%
White Other74.6%
Other72.1%
Homeownership rate
White British73.2%
Mixed50.6%
White Other53.2%
Other58.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British28.4%
Mixed35.6%
White Other43.1%
Other51.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
124National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
9.4Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East Midlands by supported asylum.