asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Arun

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Andrew Griffith
Andrew GriffithConservative · Arundel and South Downs
3 people on asylum support in Arun

Rank 330 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.17 per 10,000 puts Arun in the 8th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 3 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 3 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.1M a year.

What asylum costs Arun

£68Kestimated hotel costs/year
£8Ksubsistence payments/year
£4KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 3 people on asylum support in Arun(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Arun: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

2
4310Mar 2018Dec 2025Peak Mar 2019Bibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20181
Jun 20181
Sept 20181
Dec 20182
Mar 20194
Jun 20194
Sept 20194
Dec 20192
Mar 20202
Jun 20202
Sept 20202
Dec 20202
Mar 20212
Jun 20212
Sept 20212
Dec 20212
Mar 20231
Sept 20232
Mar 20252
Jun 20253
Sept 20251
Dec 20252

Trend

+1Latest quarter change
+1Change across series
22Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only3
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
3
Homes for Ukraine
480
Afghan programme
272
Resettlement cumulative
25

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine480
Afghan programme272
Resettlement cumulative25

Population context

All pathways total755
Share of local population0.44%

Ethnic composition projection

Arun: White British 88.6% (2021) to 80.7% (2051). 80% CI: 80.7, 83.6%.

Ethnic composition: Arun

024487297% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 77% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Mixed 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Arun

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
92%
2021
89%
2031proj
87%
8%
2041proj
84%
9%
2051proj
81%
10%
2061proj
77%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Arun ranges from55.1% to 73.3%by 2051. That is a 18.2pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 61.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.8% (2021) → 0.8% (2051). Christian 55.5% → 14.2%.

Religion: Arun

929496989%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 84% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

10.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.27). 94.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Arun

628507294%Census 2021UK-born 64% in 2051Foreign-born 36% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.2% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black16% internal, 2% international
other13.2% internal, 3.8% international
white other12.5% internal, 2.8% international
mixed12% internal, 0.8% international
asian11% internal, 1.6% international
white british8.8% internal, 0.2% international

Why Arun is changing

-3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.9pp
Local migration
+4.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Arun on UK Demographics →