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South East

Ashford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sojan Joseph
Sojan JosephLabour · Ashford
38 people on asylum support in Ashford

Rank 244 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 2.67 per 10,000 puts Ashford in the 30th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 3 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 38 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.5M a year.

What asylum costs Ashford

£858Kestimated hotel costs/year
£97Ksubsistence payments/year
£46KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 38 people on asylum support in Ashford(0.04% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Ashford: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

168
232155770Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Jun 20142
Sept 20143
Dec 20143
Mar 20153
Jun 20151
Sept 20161
Dec 20161
Mar 20171
Jun 20174
Sept 20174
Dec 20171
Mar 20181
Sept 20181
Dec 20181
Mar 20191
Jun 20193
Sept 20193
Dec 20192
Mar 20204
Jun 20204
Sept 20204
Dec 20204
Mar 20214
Jun 20214
Sept 20214
Dec 20212
Mar 20223
Jun 20223
Sept 20223
Dec 2022232
Mar 2023200
Jun 2023200
Sept 2023201
Dec 2023181
Mar 2024132
Jun 2024113
Sept 2024189
Dec 2024203
Mar 2025191
Jun 2025159
Sept 2025200
Dec 2025168

Trend

-32Latest quarter change
+166Change across series
43Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation35
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only3
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
38
Homes for Ukraine
307
Afghan programme
142
Resettlement cumulative
162

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine307
Afghan programme142
Resettlement cumulative162

Population context

All pathways total487
Share of local population0.34%

Ethnic composition projection

Ashford: White British 82.6% (2021) to 62.9% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Ashford

024477194% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 54% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Asian 11% in 2061Black 9% in 2061Mixed 11% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Ashford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
89%
2021
83%
2031proj
78%
2041proj
71%
9%
2051proj
63%
8%
10%
2061proj
54%
10%
11%
9%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Ashford ranges from49.9% to 66.9%by 2051. That is a 17pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.2% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.7% (2021) → 4.4% (2051). Christian 50.5% → 9.5%.

Religion: Ashford

019375675%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 70% in 2051Muslim 4% in 2051Hindu 6% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

13.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.4). 93.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Ashford

829507192%Census 2021UK-born 45% in 2051Foreign-born 55% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black16.3% internal, 6% international
other12% internal, 4% international
white other12.6% internal, 2.4% international
asian11.7% internal, 3.1% international
mixed11.9% internal, 0.9% international
white british8.7% internal, 0.2% international

Why Ashford is changing

-6.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+0.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Ashford on UK Demographics →