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South West

Bath and North East Somerset

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dan Norris
Dan NorrisIndependent · North East Somerset and Hanham

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bath and North East Somerset.

4 people on asylum support in Bath and North East Somerset

Rank 325 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.2 per 10,000 puts Bath and North East Somerset in the 8th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 4 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.2M a year.

What asylum costs Bath and North East Somerset

£90Kestimated hotel costs/year
£10Ksubsistence payments/year
£5KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 4 people on asylum support in Bath and North East Somerset(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Bath and North East Somerset: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

10
3523120Sept 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20151
Sept 20151
Dec 20151
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Dec 20219
Mar 20226
Jun 202235
Sept 20223
Dec 20221
Mar 20233
Sept 20231
Mar 202411
Jun 20243
Sept 20243
Dec 20244
Mar 20254
Jun 20256
Sept 20257
Dec 202510

Trend

+3Latest quarter change
+9Change across series
24Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation2
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
4
Homes for Ukraine
489
Afghan programme
68
Resettlement cumulative
80

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine489
Afghan programme68
Resettlement cumulative80

Population context

All pathways total561
Share of local population0.28%

Ethnic composition projection

Bath and North East Somerset: White British 85.6% (2021) to 75.4% (2051). 80% CI: 73.7, 78.7%.

Ethnic composition: Bath and North East Somerset

024487195% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 72% in 2061White Other 11% in 2061Asian 3% in 2061Mixed 9% in 2061Other 4% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Bath and North East Somerset

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
86%
2031proj
83%
2041proj
79%
9%
2051proj
75%
10%
2061proj
72%
11%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Bath and North East Somerset ranges from58.7% to 72.7%by 2051. That is a 14pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 64.2% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.1% (2021) → 1.8% (2051). Christian 45.4% → 10.1%.

Religion: Bath and North East Somerset

527487091%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 86% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.34). 95.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Bath and North East Somerset

729507193%Census 2021UK-born 61% in 2051Foreign-born 39% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 13.5% moved within UK, 1.4% arrived from abroad
asian23.1% internal, 11% international
other20.6% internal, 7.5% international
black19.9% internal, 4.4% international
white other17.6% internal, 6.5% international
mixed19.1% internal, 2.5% international
white british12.5% internal, 0.6% international

Why Bath and North East Somerset is changing

-4.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+2.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Bath and North East Somerset on UK Demographics →