Trend
-26 Latest quarter change
+208 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bedford
219 on asylum support. Rank 136 nationally, 12 in East of England. Rate: 11.23 per 10,000 (58th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Bedford has 219 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 136 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 11.23 per 10,000 residents places it around the 58th percentile. 95 are in contingency accommodation (43.4% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Bedford
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 115
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 95
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 656
Afghan programme 140
Resettlement cumulative 104
Population context
All pathways total 1,015
Share of local population 0.52%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Bedford: WBI 64.1% (2021) → 32.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2036. 80% CI: 31.5–37.3%.
Ethnic composition — Bedford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 7.5% (2021) → 10.1% (2051). Christian 50.5% → 16.5%.
Religion — Bedford
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
21.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.64). 87.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Bedford
UK-born Foreign-born
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Bedford is changing
-7.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63%
Mixed 70%
White Other 75.2%
Other 64.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 68.6%
Mixed 41.6%
White Other 42.2%
Other 48.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 34.8%
Mixed 32.8%
White Other 34.6%
Other 36%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 31,475 pupils. 48.5% White British. Schools are 15.6pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 48.5%
Asian 16.9%
White Other 12.2%
Mixed 11.9%
Black 9%
Other 1.5%
What this means
Schools are 16pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
51.5% Minority pupils now
59.7% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
219 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
11.23 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
95 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.