Findings
Every finding is backed by data. Every number links to its source. Explore the research. Scrutinise the methodology. Draw your own conclusions.
Academic ethnic projections underestimated diversity in 95% of areas
The NEWETHPOP cohort-component model, the UK's most cited academic ethnic projection, over-predicted White British population share in 282 out of 296 local authorities. Average error: 3.95 percentage points. The UK diversified faster than the gold-standard model predicted.
NEWETHPOP (University of Leeds) →What's really driving ethnic change — national trend, not local migration
Shift-share decomposition of 305 local authorities shows that 86% of Burnley's White British decline is explained by the national trend — not local immigration. Most areas are changing because the whole country is changing, not because of exceptional local migration.
ONS Census 2011 & 2021 →Councils with fastest demographic change spend most on adult social care
The five councils with the fastest White British population decline spend an average of £612 per capita on adult social care, compared to £472 for the five with the slowest change. Ageing populations, deprivation, and demographic transition all contribute to higher social care demand.
NHS Digital ASC Report →Higher asylum dispersal rates correlate with higher recorded crime — but deprivation is the common driver
Among 25 tracked local authorities, areas with higher asylum dispersal rates tend to have higher police recorded crime rates (r = 0.68). However, both metrics correlate strongly with the Index of Multiple Deprivation — the association likely reflects deprivation-driven placement policy rather than a causal link between asylum seekers and crime.
ONS Crime Statistics →64,426 asylum seekers waiting for a decision
The initial-decision backlog stands at 64,426. Every person in that queue costs money — hotel beds, support payments, legal aid. The Home Office made 39,395 initial decisions in Q4 2025 but 20,725 new claims arrived in the same quarter.
Home Office Statistics →Blackpool, Preston and Blackburn face the highest combined pressure across 5 domains
A composite index across asylum dispersal, demographic change, crime rates, SEND demand, and social care spend places Blackpool, Preston, and Blackburn with Darwen as the three most pressured local authorities in our tracking set. No other UK transparency platform combines these five domains at local authority level.
Multiple official sources →Home Office spends £5.77M PER DAY on asylum hotels
The National Audit Office confirmed the Home Office is spending an average of £5.77 million per day on asylum hotel accommodation. That's £2.1 billion per year on hotels alone — while 64,426 people wait for a decision on their claim.
NAO Report →EHCP demand grew fastest in areas with rapid demographic change
Across 25 tracked local authorities, the average five-year growth in Education, Health and Care Plans is 42%. Areas experiencing faster demographic change — including Blackpool (+51%), Preston (+47%), and Doncaster (+45%) — tend to show above-average SEND demand growth. Multiple factors drive this pattern.
DfE SEND Statistics →41,472 arrived by small boat in 2025
41,472 people were detected arriving via small boat across the English Channel in 2025. Small boats now account for 89.2% of all illegal entry routes. The Rwanda scheme was scrapped. The boats keep coming.
Home Office Statistics →