Arab population projected to triple in 20 councils by 2051 — a group no model has tracked before

No demographic model has ever projected the Arab population of England separately. Until now.

Census 2021 introduced a standalone “Arab” ethnic category. Previous projections — including NEWETHPOP and our own v5.0 model — lumped Arab with “Other ethnic group”, making it invisible in demographic analysis. Our v6.0 model, built on the ONS Census 2021 custom dataset with 20 ethnic groups, projects Arab population dynamics for the first time at local authority level.

There are 319,452 people who identified as Arab in Census 2021 — 0.58% of England’s population. By 2051, our projections show this rising to 1.8% nationally, with significantly higher concentrations in specific areas.

The fastest-growing Arab communities:

• Brent: 5.3% → 16.5% by 2051
• Ealing: 4.4% → 13.9%
• Westminster: 7.6% → 13.2%
• Harrow: 2.4% → 10.8%
• Kingston upon Thames: 2.1% → 10.5%
• Manchester: 2.7% → 8.8%
• Liverpool: 1.7% → 8.7%
• Birmingham: 1.7% → 8.1%

Why this matters for asylum policy: The nationality-to-ethnicity mapping shows that asylum seekers from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya — all with 80%+ grant rates — will primarily identify as Arab in Census terms. Arab population growth is therefore partly driven by successful asylum claims and subsequent family reunion. This is the first model to make that link quantifiable.

Methodology: Hamilton-Perry v6.0 with 20 ethnic groups. Census 2021 direct observations (no IPF). Arab group separated from “Other” for the first time. CWR-implied TFR for Arab population: approximately 2.02 (above White British 1.71). SNPP 2022-based envelope constraint. These are demographic projections assuming 2011-2021 patterns persist — not forecasts.