Scrutiny estimate Asylum support
10-year asylum accommodation contract forecast
£15,300,000,000
10-year forecast as at 2024-11-08
Buyer Home Office
Supplier No supplier entity published
Scope route_specific
Follow the migrants, follow the money, and keep the route labels honest.
The public money layer now has a real starter ledger behind it. It mixes prime contract scope, official funding instructions, and scrutiny cost rows so the public can see where money is documented, where it is estimated, and where the supplier chain still disappears into opacity.
Where the public values already exist
The starter ledger already contains large public figures. They need clear route labels and context, not flattening into one misleading spend total.
Cost indicator Asylum support
Average daily asylum hotel cost
£5,770,000
2024/25 average
Buyer Home Office
Supplier No supplier entity published
Scope route_specific
Funding instruction Homes for Ukraine
Homes for Ukraine standard local-authority tariff
£5,900
2025/26 standard arrivals tariff
Buyer Ministry of Housing Communities and Local Government
Supplier Participating local authorities
Scope route_specific
Ledger composition at a glance
These visual splits show the structure of the money layer without collapsing unlike rows into one misleading total.
Route family record mix
Record counts by route or scheme family currently represented in the starter ledger.
Asylum support
7 4 rows with published value | 4 linked sites Homes for Ukraine
2 2 rows with published value | 0 linked sites UK Resettlement Scheme
1 0 rows with published value | 0 linked sites Afghan Resettlement Programme
1 0 rows with published value | 0 linked sites Record type mix
The ledger keeps contract scope, funding instructions, and scrutiny rows split because they answer different questions.
Funding instruction
6 4 rows with published value Prime contract scope
3 No rows with published value Scrutiny estimate
1 1 rows with published value Cost indicator
1 1 rows with published value Buyer control
Buyer concentration belongs on the page because a small number of public bodies still control most of the route-specific money surface.
9 rows 3 route families
Home Office
4 rows with published values | 4 linked site s
Disclosed value total: £15,305,771,300
2 rows 1 route families
Ministry of Housing Communities and Local Government
2 rows with published values | 0 linked site s
Disclosed value total: £6,100
Named sites linked to money rows by region
East of England currently has the largest count of named sites already attached to money rows.
What the ledger already proves
The money layer is still small, but it already exposes concentration, missing comparability, and where visible sites intersect with public contracts.
Asylum support still dominates the money ledger
Asylum support accounts for 7 of the 11 public rows now in scope, with 4 named sites already tied into the money layer.
Record type still matters more than one headline spend total
Funding instruction is the largest ledger class by row count. The page keeps row types separate because tariffs, contract scope, and scrutiny estimates are not comparable as one fake total.
Buyer control is concentrated
Home Office currently appears on 9 public rows across 3 route families, which is why buyer-level accountability belongs alongside supplier exposure.
Site-linked money rows are already geographically concentrated
East of England currently leads the starter money ledger on linked named sites, showing where contract responsibility and the visible estate already overlap in public evidence.
Supplier and public-body watchlist
The watchlist combines visible hotel exposure, public contract rows, and any disclosed contract value already in the starter ledger.
public_body low
Participating local authorities
6
Public money rows tied to this profile.
Linked sites 0
Published value Not disclosed / not normalized
Route families Homes for Ukraine, UK Resettlement Scheme, Asylum support, Afghan Resettlement Programme
prime_provider low
Serco
1
Public money row tied to this profile.
Linked sites 2
Published value Not disclosed / not normalized
Route families Asylum support
prime_provider low
Clearsprings Ready Homes
1
Public money row tied to this profile.
Linked sites 1
Published value Not disclosed / not normalized
Route families Asylum support
prime_provider low
Mears
1
Public money row tied to this profile.
Linked sites 1
Published value Not disclosed / not normalized
Route families Asylum support
Current public ledger
| Row | Route or scheme | Buyer / supplier | Value | Linked sites |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asylum accommodation and support contract regional scope: Serco Prime contract scope route_specific | Asylum support Current regional contract structure | Home Office Serco prime_provider | Not disclosed / not normalized | Bell Hotel Epping Forest partial Phoenix Hotel Epping Forest unresolved |
| Asylum accommodation and support contract regional scope: Mears Prime contract scope route_specific | Asylum support Current regional contract structure | Home Office Mears prime_provider | Not disclosed / not normalized | Cedar Court Hotel Wakefield partial |
| Asylum accommodation and support contract regional scope: Clearsprings Prime contract scope route_specific | Asylum support Current regional contract structure | Home Office Clearsprings Ready Homes prime_provider | Not disclosed / not normalized | Stanwell Hotel Spelthorne partial |
| 10-year asylum accommodation contract forecast Scrutiny estimate route_specific | Asylum support 10-year forecast as at 2024-11-08 | Home Office No supplier entity published in row | £15,300,000,000 forecast_total | No site link in starter ledger |
| Average daily asylum hotel cost Cost indicator route_specific | Asylum support 2024/25 average | Home Office No supplier entity published in row | £5,770,000 daily_cost_average | No site link in starter ledger |
| Homes for Ukraine standard local-authority tariff Funding instruction route_specific | Homes for Ukraine Homes for Ukraine 2025/26 standard arrivals tariff | Ministry of Housing Communities and Local Government Participating local authorities public_body | £5,900 tariff | No site link in starter ledger |
| UK resettlement programmes funding instruction 2025 to 2026 Funding instruction route_specific | UK Resettlement Scheme UK resettlement programmes 2025/26 funding instruction | Home Office Participating local authorities public_body | Not disclosed / not normalized unknown | No site link in starter ledger |
| Asylum Grant 2025 to 2026 baseline payment Funding instruction route_specific | Asylum support Asylum Grant 2025 to 2026 2025/26 baseline payment | Home Office Participating local authorities public_body | £1,200 tariff | No site link in starter ledger |
| Asylum Grant 2025 to 2026 additional occupied bedspace payment Funding instruction route_specific | Asylum support Asylum Grant 2025 to 2026 Monthly marginal bedspace payment | Home Office Participating local authorities public_body | £100.00 tariff | No site link in starter ledger |
| Afghan schemes funding instruction 2024 to 2025 Funding instruction route_specific | Afghan Resettlement Programme Afghan schemes 2024/25 funding instruction page updated 2025-09-01 | Home Office Participating local authorities public_body | Not disclosed / not normalized unknown | No site link in starter ledger |
| Homes for Ukraine welcome payment per guest Funding instruction route_specific | Homes for Ukraine Homes for Ukraine Current guest welcome payment | Ministry of Housing Communities and Local Government Participating local authorities public_body | £200.00 grant | No site link in starter ledger |
Supplier and public-body profiles
The wider ledger still matters, even after the watchlist highlights the most legible supplier exposure.
prime_provider low
Serco
2 linked sites | 1 public money row
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 0
hotel_operator elevated
Cedar Court Hotels
1 linked site | 0 public money rows
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 1
prime_provider low
Clearsprings
1 linked site | 0 public money rows
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 0
prime_provider low
Clearsprings Ready Homes
1 linked site | 1 public money row
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 0
prime_provider low
Mears
1 linked site | 1 public money row
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 0
brand_operator elevated
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Limited
1 linked site | 0 public money rows
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 1
Company number: 01265742
freeholder medium
Somani Hotels Limited
1 linked site | 0 public money rows
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 0
Company number: 03929881
owner_group elevated
Splendid Hospitality Group LLP
1 linked site | 0 public money rows
Route families: Asylum support
Integrity signals: 1
Company number: OC331910
Investigative leads already visible in the data
These are the clearest current gaps between what the public can map and what the system still withholds.
warning
Prime regional contracts are mapped, but values are still not normalized in the starter public ledger
3 current prime-provider rows are linked to visible hotel geography without a disclosed contract value in this starter ledger.
info
Official funding instructions exist, but several tariff tables still need normalization
2 funding-instruction rows are in scope but still need machine-readable component tables before place-level funding comparisons are safe to publish.
warning
Current named hotels still outpace documented operator and owner chains
4 current named hotel sites are visible in the live ledger but still sit in partial or unresolved entity coverage.
warning
Local response contracts remain the biggest money gap
The public ledger has prime-provider scope, national cost indicators, and official funding instructions, but almost no normalized local response contracts tied to named hotels or refugee placement work.
Supplier layers to investigate next
The next public gains come from pushing below the prime contract layer and making subcontractor visibility publishable.
route_specific
Prime asylum accommodation providers
The national accommodation primes control regional delivery, subcontracting, and hotel procurement decisions.
SercoMearsClearsprings
Which regions do they control?
local_route_relevant
Hotel operators and site managers
These are the entities physically operating or managing a named site used for asylum accommodation or related temporary placement.
Named hotel sitesManagement companiesFranchise operators
Is the operator the same as the freeholder?
context_only
Freeholders, landlords, and charged owners
Ownership chains matter because the public-facing hotel brand is often not the economic beneficiary.
Freehold companiesProperty SPVsLenders with charges
Who ultimately owns the site or SPV?
local_route_relevant
Subcontractors and service vendors
The supplier chain extends beyond accommodation primes and can expose hidden cost centres or repeat local contractors.
SecurityTransportCleaningFacilitiesWelfareInterpretation
Which service categories recur across places?
context_only
Public body response spend
Councils and other public bodies may incur route-linked costs without publishing a neat asylum budget line.
Council emergency contractsNHS response workSchool transportSafeguarding response
Which rows can be tied explicitly to asylum hotels or refugee-response work?
Integrity techniques
ownership
Beneficial ownership chain mapping
Link site operator, freeholder, PSCs, directors, and charges so the economic beneficiary is not hidden behind a hotel brand.
Integrity model adapted for asylum hotels
entity_risk
Company status, shell, and dormant signals
Flag dissolved, dormant, shell-like, or newly formed entities appearing in route-linked supplier chains.
Lancashire integrity outputs
procurement
Cross-body supplier matching
Track the same supplier, operator, or owner across Home Office, council, NHS, and wider public-body contexts.
Cross-council supplier model
site_intelligence
Property-to-spend linking
Join named sites and addresses to supplier rows, facilities work, land records, and local property intelligence.
Lancashire asset enrichment pattern
procurement
Threshold-splitting detection
Identify repeated sub-threshold awards or clustered spend that may avoid fuller procurement scrutiny.
Threshold manipulation checks
timing
Temporal clustering and sudden activation
Look for bursts of awards, site activation, or ownership changes around hotel opening or route-policy shocks.
Temporal clustering logic
network
Director overlap and network scoring
Use co-director, shared-address, and linked-company graphs to identify repeated groups around multiple sites or suppliers.
Network centrality and co-director analysis
governance
Revolving-door and interest checks
Compare public decision-makers, registers of interest, company roles, and supplier relationships where route-linked decisions are material.
Governance integrity layer
spend
Price, volume, and repeat-pattern anomalies
Find unusually high per-head, per-room, per-night, or repeat local response costs compared with peer areas and prior periods.
Accountability mart pattern analysis
transparency
Secrecy-gap tracking
Treat unnamed hotel use, withheld site lists, and opaque operator ownership as reportable system risks rather than background noise.
asylumstats hotel-evidence model
Scope and publish rules
Route or scheme specific
Official datasets that directly identify an asylum route, refugee resettlement scheme, refugee family route, or humanitarian route.
Local route-relevant
Council statements, FOIs, planning records, or local documents that explicitly refer to asylum hotels, refugee resettlement, Afghan arrivals, Ukraine arrivals, or related local response.
Context only
General council finance, procurement, or supplier data kept as research context and never merged into public asylum or refugee charts unless a row is explicitly tied to a route or scheme.
Do not publish an owner or operator claim unless the site-to-entity match has strong documentary backing.
Do not treat generic council spend or procurement as asylum or refugee spend unless the row text, supplier, site, or source explicitly ties it to a route or scheme.
Publish risk signals with provenance and caveats, not as unsupported accusations.
Keep route-specific facts, local evidence, and context infrastructure visibly distinct on public pages.
Inclusion test and current limits
Include publicly if the source explicitly identifies an asylum route, refugee scheme, family route, or humanitarian route.
Keep small boat arrivals separate from refugee resettlement schemes and from Ukraine humanitarian routes.
Treat local hotel statements, resettlement housing statements, FOIs, and planning records as local route-relevant evidence, not as national totals.
Keep general council finance and procurement as background context unless a row can be attributed to a specific route or scheme.
The starter money ledger deliberately mixes prime contract scope, funding instructions, and scrutiny cost rows so the public can see the whole accountability chain before local procurement ingestion is complete.
Tariff or grant rows are not aggregate spend totals. They are rate components or official funding instructions that still need claimant or placement counts before place-level spending can be estimated safely.
Prime-provider rows show current regional responsibility, not a site-specific newly awarded notice for each named hotel.
Local response contracts, subcontractor rows, and council emergency procurement remain the biggest missing public layer.