The national asylum picture
Routes, spending, and findings. All in one place.
System overview
Quarter-end snapshot: 30 Jun 2026.
2026 Q2
2026 Q2
As at 30 Jun 2026
As at 30 Jun 2026
Demographic outlook
National ethnic composition trajectory from Census 2021 base. 93 areas projected below 50% White British by 2051.
National ethnic composition (England & Wales)
White BritishAsianBlackMixedWhite Other
Projected share of each ethnic group from Census 2021 forward, using cohort change ratios. The lines show direction of travel, not certainty: actual outcomes will depend on migration, fertility, and policy.
2023high
SandwellWBI 52% → below 50% by 2023. Declining 1.4pp/year.
2024high
OxfordWBI 53% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 1.0pp/year.
2024high
CambridgeWBI 53% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 1.3pp/year.
2025high
WolverhamptonWBI 55% → below 50% by 2025. Declining 1.0pp/year.
Routes
How people enter the asylum system and what happens to their claims.
Illegal entry methods
Year ending June 2026
Decision outcomes
2026 Q2
Safe and legal (humanitarian) grants
124,930Year ending June 2026 | -17,488 from previous
Supported asylum population
93,2932026-06-30 | +0 from previous
Ukraine arrivals
13,600Year ending June 2026 | -3,600 from previous
Refugee Family Reunion grants
12,888Year ending June 2026 | -7,755 from previous
Grant rates by nationality
107 nationalities assessed (2020-2025). 10 with 75%+ grant rate, 41 with under 25%. Initial decisions only. The real protection rate is higher after appeals are counted.
Highest grant rates
Nationalities most likely granted protection (initial decision)
Yemen94.8%
Sudan92.9%
Eritrea90.4%
South Sudan88.6%
Myanmar (Burma)86.7%
Palestine81.8%
Libya81.3%
Saudi Arabia79.7%
Lowest grant rates
Nationalities most likely refused (initial decision)
Hungary0%
Lithuania0%
Poland0.7%
East Timor1%
Brazil2%
Romania2.6%
India2.7%
Nepal2.7%
Top claimant nationalities (all time)
Methodology
Grant rate = (grants of protection + grants of other leave) / (grants + refusals) × 100. Excludes withdrawn cases and administrative outcomes from denominator (substantive decisions only). Recent period = 2020-2025. Minimum 50 substantive decisions for league table inclusion. 'Refugee' and 'Stateless person' status entries excluded as they are not nationalities.
These are INITIAL decision grant rates only. Many refusals are overturned on appeal, the true grant rate (after appeals) is significantly higher for some nationalities. For example, Iranian initial grant rate ~72% rises to ~85% after successful appeals.
Grant rate measures what proportion of substantive decisions are positive. It does not account for withdrawn cases or administrative outcomes, which can represent a large share of total decisions for some nationalities.
Post-2009 data is fully disaggregated by age, sex, applicant type, and UASC status. All rows are summed to produce totals, there are no subtotal rows in the source data.
Dependant applicants are included alongside main applicants. Dependants generally receive the same outcome as the main applicant.
Spending
Where the money goes: contracts, suppliers, and the hotel bill.
Top contracts by value
10-year asylum accommodation contract forecast£15.3B
Average daily asylum hotel cost£5.8M
Homes for Ukraine standard local-authority tariff£5,900
Asylum Grant 2025 to 2026 baseline payment£1,200
Key suppliers
Findings
Data-backed research. Every number sourced.
The true cost of asylum: £234 per income taxpayer, per year
£8.0BAnnual cost (central estimate)
Asylum grant rates rise sharply on appeal, across 101 nationalities
+14.6ppAverage appeal uplift across 101 nationalities
Pakistani UK asylum decisions: 989 in 2022, 17,592 in 2025
17.8xIncrease in Pakistani UK asylum decisions 2022 to 2025
Britain returns 39,000 people a year. Every political manifesto promises more.
39,000UK total returns year ending March 2026
86 local authorities projected minority White British by 2051
86Areas WBI <50% by 2051
Albanian asylum seekers don't change ethnic minority statistics. 90% identify as White
89.7%Albanian → White Other