The national asylum picture
Routes, spending, and findings. All in one place.
System overview
Quarter-end snapshot: 31 Mar 2026.
2026 Q1
2026 Q1
As at 31 Mar 2026
As at 31 Mar 2026
Demographic outlook
National ethnic composition trajectory from Census 2021 base. 109 areas projected below 50% White British by 2051.
National ethnic composition (England & Wales)
White British Asian Black Mixed White Other
Projected share of each ethnic group from Census 2021 forward, using cohort change ratios. The lines show direction of travel, not certainty: actual outcomes will depend on migration, fertility, and policy.
2022 high
Sandwell WBI 52% → below 50% by 2022. Declining 1.4pp/year.
2024 high
Reading WBI 53% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 1.2pp/year.
2024 high
Oxford WBI 53% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 1.0pp/year.
2024 high
Cambridge WBI 53% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 1.3pp/year.
Routes
How people enter the asylum system and what happens to their claims.
Illegal entry methods
Latest year
Decision outcomes
2026 Q1
Safe and legal (humanitarian) grants
190,809 Year ending March 2026 | +115,856 from previous
Supported asylum population
97,519 2025-12-31 | +0 from previous
Refugee Family Reunion grants
16,787 Year ending March 2026 | -3,340 from previous
Ukraine arrivals
13,700 Year ending March 2026 | -6,500 from previous
Grant rates by nationality
107 nationalities assessed (2020-2025). 10 with 75%+ grant rate, 41 with under 25%. Initial decisions only. The real protection rate is higher after appeals are counted.
Highest grant rates
Nationalities most likely granted protection (initial decision)
Yemen 94.8%
Sudan 92.9%
Eritrea 90.4%
South Sudan 88.6%
Myanmar (Burma) 86.7%
Palestine 81.8%
Libya 81.3%
Saudi Arabia 79.7%
Lowest grant rates
Nationalities most likely refused (initial decision)
Hungary 0%
Lithuania 0%
Poland 0.7%
East Timor 1%
Brazil 2%
Romania 2.6%
India 2.7%
Nepal 2.7%
Top claimant nationalities (all time)
Methodology
Grant rate = (grants of protection + grants of other leave) / (grants + refusals) × 100. Excludes withdrawn cases and administrative outcomes from denominator (substantive decisions only). Recent period = 2020-2025. Minimum 50 substantive decisions for league table inclusion. 'Refugee' and 'Stateless person' status entries excluded as they are not nationalities.
These are INITIAL decision grant rates only. Many refusals are overturned on appeal — the true grant rate (after appeals) is significantly higher for some nationalities. For example, Iranian initial grant rate ~72% rises to ~85% after successful appeals.
Grant rate measures what proportion of substantive decisions are positive. It does not account for withdrawn cases or administrative outcomes, which can represent a large share of total decisions for some nationalities.
Post-2009 data is fully disaggregated by age, sex, applicant type, and UASC status. All rows are summed to produce totals — there are no subtotal rows in the source data.
Dependant applicants are included alongside main applicants. Dependants generally receive the same outcome as the main applicant.
Spending
Where the money goes: contracts, suppliers, and the hotel bill.
Top contracts by value
10-year asylum accommodation contract forecast £15.3B
Average daily asylum hotel cost £5.8M
Homes for Ukraine standard local-authority tariff £5,900
Asylum Grant 2025 to 2026 baseline payment £1,200
Key suppliers
Findings
Data-backed research. Every number sourced.
The Home Office is wrong by 14.6 percentage points: the appeal uplift across 70 nationalities
+14.6pp Average appeal uplift across 70 nationalities
Pakistani UK asylum decisions: 989 in 2022, 17,592 in 2025
17.8x Increase in Pakistani UK asylum decisions 2022 to 2025
Britain returns 39,000 people a year. Every political manifesto promises more.
39,000 UK total returns year ending March 2026
109 local authorities projected minority White British by 2051
109 Areas WBI <50% by 2051
Albanian asylum seekers don't change ethnic minority statistics. 90% identify as White
89.7% Albanian → White Other
Arab population projected to triple in 20 councils by 2051. a group no model has tracked before
319K Arab population (Census 2021)