The national asylum picture
Routes, spending, and findings — all in one place.
System overview
Quarter-end snapshot: 31 Dec 2025.
2025 Q4
2025 Q4
As at 31 Dec 2025
As at 31 Dec 2025
Demographic outlook
National ethnic composition trajectory from Census 2021 base. 116 areas projected below 50% White British by 2051.
National ethnic composition (England & Wales)
White British Asian Black Mixed White Other
2022 high
Sandwell WBI 52% → below 50% by 2022. Declining 1.4pp/year.
2024 high
Reading WBI 53% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 1.2pp/year.
2024 high
Oxford WBI 53% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 1.0pp/year.
2024 high
Kingston upon Thames WBI 54% → below 50% by 2024. Declining 0.9pp/year.
Routes
How people enter the asylum system and what happens to their claims.
Illegal entry methods
Latest year
Decision outcomes
2025 Q4
Safe and legal (humanitarian) grants
189,823 2025 | +112,624 from previous
Supported asylum population
107,003 2025-12-31 | +0 from previous
Small boat arrivals
41,472 2025 | +4,656 from previous
Refugee Family Reunion grants
18,869 2025 | -389 from previous
Spending
Where the money goes — contracts, suppliers, and the hotel bill.
Top contracts by value
10-year asylum accommodation contract forecast £15.3B
Average daily asylum hotel cost £5.8M
Homes for Ukraine standard local-authority tariff £5,900
Asylum Grant 2025 to 2026 baseline payment £1,200
Key suppliers
Findings
Data-backed research. Every number sourced.
Academic ethnic projections underestimated diversity in 95% of areas
3.95pp Mean prediction error
What's really driving ethnic change — national trend, not local migration
86% Change from national trend
Councils with fastest demographic change spend most on adult social care
£612 Avg spend per capita (top 5)
Higher asylum dispersal rates correlate with higher recorded crime — but deprivation is the common driver
0.68 Correlation coefficient
64,426 asylum seekers waiting for a decision
64,426 Awaiting Decision
Blackpool, Preston and Blackburn face the highest combined pressure across 5 domains
3 Top pressure councils