Roma and Gypsy/Traveller populations now separately tracked — concentrated in specific boroughs

Two populations that have never been separately projected: Roma and Gypsy/Irish Traveller.

Census 2021 distinguishes White: Roma (98,785 people, 0.18%) from White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller (63,348 people, 0.11%). Previous demographic models — including NEWETHPOP and our own v5.0 — merged both into White Other, making them invisible.

Roma are concentrated in urban London boroughs:

• Hammersmith and Fulham: 0.81%
• Haringey: 0.76%
• Westminster: 0.74%
• Kensington and Chelsea: 0.74%
• Brent: 0.74%
• Tower Hamlets: 0.72%
• Newham: 0.67%

Gypsy/Irish Travellers are concentrated in rural and semi-rural areas:

• Maidstone: 0.58%
• Fenland: 0.57%
• Central Bedfordshire: 0.42%
• Basildon: 0.39%
• Mid Devon: 0.35%

Why this matters: Local authorities have legal obligations to assess accommodation needs for Gypsy and Traveller communities (under the Housing Act 2004 and Planning Policy for Traveller Sites). Until now, no demographic projection has been available to inform these assessments. Our model provides the first projected trajectories for these groups.

CWR-implied fertility: Gypsy/Traveller has the highest CWR-implied TFR of any group at approximately 2.56 — significantly above the national average. Roma CWR-implied TFR is approximately 1.33. These rates drive different population growth trajectories despite both groups being small.

Methodology: Hamilton-Perry v6.0 with 20 ethnic groups. Census 2021 direct observations. Roma separated from White Other (previously merged). Gypsy/Irish Traveller separated from White Other. Small population sizes mean wider confidence intervals than for larger groups.