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East of England

Bedford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Mohammad Yasin
Mohammad YasinLabour · Bedford

4 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Bedford.

139 people on asylum support in Bedford

Rank 161 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 7.08 per 10,000 puts Bedford in the 53rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2041. 20 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 139 people at £107 per person per day is about £5.4M a year.

What asylum costs Bedford

£3.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£355Ksubsistence payments/year
£167KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 139 people on asylum support in Bedford(0.15% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Bedford: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

219
246164820Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2024Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201411
Jun 201412
Sept 201412
Dec 201410
Mar 201511
Jun 201512
Sept 201511
Dec 201516
Mar 201618
Jun 201619
Sept 201612
Dec 201612
Mar 20175
Jun 20176
Sept 20175
Dec 20176
Mar 20185
Jun 20185
Sept 20182
Dec 20184
Mar 20197
Jun 201910
Sept 20195
Dec 20196
Mar 20205
Jun 20205
Sept 20205
Dec 20208
Mar 20219
Jun 202114
Sept 202116
Dec 202116
Mar 202218
Jun 202222
Sept 202218
Dec 202226
Mar 2023162
Jun 2023169
Sept 2023176
Dec 2023188
Mar 2024153
Jun 2024150
Sept 2024246
Dec 2024196
Mar 2025184
Jun 2025216
Sept 2025245
Dec 2025219

Trend

-26Latest quarter change
+208Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation119
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only20
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
139
Homes for Ukraine
688
Afghan programme
129
Resettlement cumulative
104

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine688
Afghan programme129
Resettlement cumulative104

Population context

All pathways total956
Share of local population0.49%

Ethnic composition projection

Bedford: White British 64.1% (2021) to 42.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2041. 80% CI: 41.7, 47.1%.

Ethnic composition: Bedford

019385776% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 35% in 2061White Other 14% in 2061Asian 17% in 2061Black 10% in 2061Mixed 16% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Bedford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
71%
9%
11%
2021
64%
12%
13%
2031proj
58%
13%
14%
2041proj
50%
14%
15%
9%
2051proj
43%
14%
16%
9%
12%
2061proj
35%
14%
17%
10%
16%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Bedford ranges from39.3% to 48.4%by 2051. That is a 9.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 42.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 7.5% (2021) → 10.1% (2051). Christian 50.5% → 16.5%.

Religion: Bedford

220385674%Census 2021Christian 17% in 2051No religion 69% in 2051Muslim 10% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

21.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.65). 87.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Bedford

1633506784%Census 2021UK-born 44% in 2051Foreign-born 56% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
white other12.9% internal, 2.6% international
black11.7% internal, 1.9% international
other10.3% internal, 2.4% international
mixed10.9% internal, 0.8% international
asian8.3% internal, 2% international
white british8.6% internal, 0.3% international

Why Bedford is changing

-7.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.7pp
Local migration
-1.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Bedford on UK Demographics →