Trend
-195 Latest quarter change
+1,396 Change across series
48 Official data points
Birmingham
2,637 on asylum support. Rank 2 nationally, 1 in West Midlands. Rate: 22.28 per 10,000 (80th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Birmingham has 2,637 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 2 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 22.28 per 10,000 residents places it around the 80th percentile. 1,087 are in contingency accommodation (41.2% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Birmingham
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,387
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 163
Contingency accommodation 1,087
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,346
Afghan programme 625
Resettlement cumulative 658
Population context
All pathways total 4,608
Share of local population 0.39%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Birmingham: WBI 42.9% (2021) → 9.8% (2051). 80% CI: 9.1–11.8%.
Ethnic composition — Birmingham
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 31.8% (2021) → 53.6% (2051). Christian 36.2% → 9.6%.
Religion — Birmingham
Christian No religion Muslim Sikh
Nativity
26.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.77). 84.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Birmingham
UK-born Foreign-born
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Birmingham is changing
-10.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.9%
Mixed 60.2%
White Other 65.7%
Other 50.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 56.3%
Mixed 30.2%
White Other 40.3%
Other 34.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.1%
Mixed 29.6%
White Other 39.2%
Other 32.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 201,666 pupils. 24.7% White British. Schools are 18.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 39.1%
White British 24.7%
Black 14.4%
Mixed 10.5%
Other 6.5%
White Other 4.8%
What this means
Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
75.3% Minority pupils now
82.8% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
2,637 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
22.28 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
1,087 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in West Midlands by supported asylum.