Trend
-406 Latest quarter change
+689 Change across series
33 Official data points
Braintree
691 on asylum support. Rank 47 nationally, 2 in East of England. Rate: 42.06 per 10,000 (95th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 East of England region
Summary
Braintree has 691 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 47 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 42.06 per 10,000 residents places it around the 95th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Braintree
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 40
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 314
Afghan programme 17
Resettlement cumulative 7
Population context
All pathways total 1,022
Share of local population 0.62%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Braintree: WBI 90.3% (2021) → 80.2% (2051). 80% CI: 70.4–75.5%.
Ethnic composition — Braintree
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 0.7% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 50.0% → 12.0%.
Religion — Braintree
Christian No religion
Nativity
7.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 97% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Braintree
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Braintree is changing
-2.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.3%
Mixed 72.6%
White Other 75%
Other 69.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 69.4%
Mixed 58.4%
White Other 54.2%
Other 53.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.9%
Mixed 34.5%
White Other 40.6%
Other 38%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
691 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
42.06 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East of England by supported asylum.