Trend
-271 Latest quarter change
+843 Change across series
48 Official data points
Bristol, City of
1,108 on asylum support. Rank 25 nationally, 1 in South West. Rate: 22.41 per 10,000 (81st percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Bristol, City of has 1,108 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 25 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 22.41 per 10,000 residents places it around the 81st percentile. 722 are in contingency accommodation (65.2% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Bristol, City of
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 343
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 43
Contingency accommodation 722
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,050
Afghan programme 487
Resettlement cumulative 486
Population context
All pathways total 2,645
Share of local population 0.53%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Bristol, City of: WBI 71.6% (2021) → 36.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2041. 80% CI: 36.5–45%.
Ethnic composition — Bristol, City of
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 7.2% (2021) → 9.2% (2051). Christian 34.6% → 6.5%.
Religion — Bristol, City of
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
18.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.56). 89.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Bristol, City of
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Bristol, City of is changing
-6.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63%
Mixed 66.7%
White Other 80.5%
Other 59%
Homeownership rate
White British 58%
Mixed 34.7%
White Other 36.6%
Other 27.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 40.6%
Mixed 41.6%
White Other 54.3%
Other 44.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,108 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
22.41 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
722 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South West by supported asylum.