Trend
+16 Latest quarter change
+354 Change across series
48 Official data points
Broxbourne
361 on asylum support. Rank 102 nationally, 6 in East of England. Rate: 35.43 per 10,000 (92nd percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Broxbourne has 361 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 102 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 35.43 per 10,000 residents places it around the 92nd percentile. 311 are in contingency accommodation (86.1% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Broxbourne
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 34
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 16
Contingency accommodation 311
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 113
Afghan programme 0
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 474
Share of local population 0.47%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Broxbourne: WBI 68.6% (2021) → 15.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2032. 80% CI: 20.1–24.5%.
Ethnic composition — Broxbourne
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 4.6% (2021) → 7.3% (2051). Christian 56.3% → 9.0%.
Religion — Broxbourne
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
17.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.6). 91% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Broxbourne
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Broxbourne is changing
-12.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.6%
Mixed 72.3%
White Other 70.9%
Other 68.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 72%
Mixed 56.9%
White Other 59.4%
Other 64.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 25.6%
Mixed 34.4%
White Other 33.5%
Other 35.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
361 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
35.43 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
311 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.