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East of England

Broxbourne

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Lewis Cocking
Lewis CockingConservative · Broxbourne
43 people on asylum support in Broxbourne

Rank 235 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.17 per 10,000 puts Broxbourne in the 40th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2037. 15 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 43 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.7M a year.

What asylum costs Broxbourne

£971Kestimated hotel costs/year
£110Ksubsistence payments/year
£52KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 43 people on asylum support in Broxbourne(0.05% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Broxbourne: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

361
4342891450Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20147
Jun 20147
Sept 20145
Dec 20145
Mar 20153
Jun 20153
Sept 20153
Dec 20153
Mar 20163
Jun 20163
Sept 20164
Dec 20166
Mar 20176
Jun 20176
Sept 20176
Dec 20176
Mar 20186
Jun 20182
Sept 20182
Dec 20189
Mar 201913
Jun 201911
Sept 201911
Dec 20197
Mar 202012
Jun 202012
Sept 202012
Dec 202017
Mar 202134
Jun 202141
Sept 202143
Dec 202141
Mar 202230
Jun 202229
Sept 202234
Dec 2022266
Mar 2023392
Jun 2023434
Sept 2023414
Dec 2023376
Mar 2024261
Jun 2024239
Sept 2024214
Dec 2024353
Mar 2025313
Jun 2025339
Sept 2025345
Dec 2025361

Trend

+16Latest quarter change
+354Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation28
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only15
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
43
Homes for Ukraine
126
Afghan programme
0
Resettlement cumulative
0

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine126
Afghan programme0
Resettlement cumulative0

Population context

All pathways total169
Share of local population0.16%

Ethnic composition projection

Broxbourne: White British 68.6% (2021) to 33.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2037. 80% CI: 32.3, 37%.

Ethnic composition: Broxbourne

021436486% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 22% in 2061White Other 15% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Black 14% in 2061Mixed 20% in 2061Other 24% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Broxbourne

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
81%
9%
2021
69%
13%
2031proj
58%
15%
9%
2041proj
46%
16%
11%
10%
13%
2051proj
33%
16%
13%
14%
18%
2061proj
22%
15%
14%
20%
24%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Broxbourne ranges from35.8% to 50.1%by 2051. That is a 14.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 40.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 4.6% (2021) → 13.1% (2051). Christian 56.3% → 16.4%.

Religion: Broxbourne

015314661%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 50% in 2051Muslim 13% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

17.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.61). 91% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Broxbourne

1331506987%Census 2021UK-born 37% in 2051Foreign-born 64% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.5% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
other12.4% internal, 1% international
white other11.6% internal, 1.2% international
asian10.4% internal, 1.1% international
black10.2% internal, 0.8% international
mixed10.3% internal, 0.3% international
white british5.8% internal, 0.1% international

Why Broxbourne is changing

-12.3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.1pp
Local migration
-5.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Broxbourne on UK Demographics →