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Caerphilly

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Chris Evans
Chris EvansLabour (Co-op) · Caerphilly
84 people on asylum support in Caerphilly

Rank 188 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.77 per 10,000 puts Caerphilly in the 42nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. Accommodation and support for 84 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.3M a year.

What asylum costs Caerphilly

£1.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£215Ksubsistence payments/year
£101KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 84 people on asylum support in Caerphilly(0.09% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Caerphilly: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

94
9463310Sept 2020Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20211
Dec 20214
Mar 20224
Jun 20227
Sept 20228
Dec 20228
Mar 20238
Jun 202323
Sept 202336
Dec 202337
Mar 202439
Jun 202450
Sept 202458
Dec 202452
Mar 202568
Jun 202574
Sept 202592
Dec 202594

Trend

+2Latest quarter change
+93Change across series
22Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation84
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
84
Homes for Ukraine
162
Afghan programme
24
Resettlement cumulative
32

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine162
Afghan programme24
Resettlement cumulative32

Population context

All pathways total270
Share of local population0.15%

Ethnic composition projection

Caerphilly: White British 96.3% (2021) to 82.4% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Caerphilly

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 82% in 2051White Other 5% in 2051Asian 6% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsian

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Caerphilly

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
97%
2021
96%
2026proj
94%
2031proj
92%
2036proj
90%
2041proj
88%
2046proj
85%
2051proj
82%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 0.4% (2021) → 0.7% (2051). Christian 38.6% → 8.0%.

Religion: Caerphilly

326497295%Census 2021Christian 8% in 2051No religion 90% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

2.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.12). 98.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Caerphilly

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 88% in 2051Foreign-born 12% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Caerphilly is changing

-1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.4pp
Local migration
+6.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Caerphilly on UK Demographics →