Trend
+28 Latest quarter change
+223 Change across series
43 Official data points
Canterbury
227 on asylum support. Rank 133 nationally, 12 in South East. Rate: 14 per 10,000 (66th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
2025-12-31 South East region
Summary
Canterbury has 227 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 133 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 14 per 10,000 residents places it around the 66th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Canterbury
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 224
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 463
Afghan programme 181
Resettlement cumulative 82
Population context
All pathways total 871
Share of local population 0.54%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Canterbury: WBI 82.5% (2021) → 62.4% (2051). 80% CI: 53.5–60.6%.
Ethnic composition — Canterbury
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.7% (2051). Christian 50.2% → 13.0%.
Religion — Canterbury
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
12.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.4). 94.6% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Canterbury
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Canterbury is changing
-5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 52.9%
Mixed 55.2%
White Other 65.3%
Other 51.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.7%
Mixed 44.4%
White Other 46.8%
Other 43.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.4%
Mixed 35.6%
White Other 51%
Other 42.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
227 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
14 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.