Trend
-45 Latest quarter change
+439 Change across series
48 Official data points
Cardiff
1,418 on asylum support. Rank 14 nationally, 1 in Wales. Rate: 36.93 per 10,000 (93rd percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Cardiff has 1,418 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 14 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 36.93 per 10,000 residents places it around the 93rd percentile. 74 are in contingency accommodation (5.2% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Cardiff
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,236
Initial accommodation 89
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 74
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 486
Afghan programme 74
Resettlement cumulative 105
Population context
All pathways total 1,978
Share of local population 0.52%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Cardiff: WBI 73.6% (2021) → 43.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2045. 80% CI: 36.4–45.1%.
Ethnic composition — Cardiff
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 9.9% (2021) → 15.6% (2051). Christian 40.9% → 10.7%.
Religion — Cardiff
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
16.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 91.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Cardiff
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Cardiff is changing
-6.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.9%
Mixed 60.3%
White Other 69.4%
Other 46%
Homeownership rate
White British 61.3%
Mixed 35.3%
White Other 38.7%
Other 24.7%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 39.3%
Mixed 34.8%
White Other 50.2%
Other 44.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,418 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
36.93 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
74 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in Wales by supported asylum.