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Carmarthenshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
60 people on asylum support in Carmarthenshire

Rank 221 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.16 per 10,000 puts Carmarthenshire in the 35th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 7 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 60 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.3M a year.

What asylum costs Carmarthenshire

£1.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£153Ksubsistence payments/year
£72KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 60 people on asylum support in Carmarthenshire(0.06% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Carmarthenshire: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

58
5839190Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Jun 20142
Sept 20142
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20221
Jun 202311
Sept 202315
Dec 202318
Mar 202425
Jun 202430
Sept 202438
Dec 202437
Mar 202541
Jun 202539
Sept 202539
Dec 202558

Trend

+19Latest quarter change
+56Change across series
17Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation53
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only7
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
60
Homes for Ukraine
363
Afghan programme
19
Resettlement cumulative
181

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine363
Afghan programme19
Resettlement cumulative181

Population context

All pathways total442
Share of local population0.23%

Ethnic composition projection

Carmarthenshire: White British 94.0% (2021) to 78.2% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Carmarthenshire

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 78% in 2051White Other 7% in 2051Asian 7% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsian

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Carmarthenshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
94%
2026proj
92%
2031proj
90%
2036proj
87%
2041proj
84%
2046proj
81%
2051proj
78%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 0.6% (2021) → 1.2% (2051). Christian 50.7% → 11.6%.

Religion: Carmarthenshire

728497091%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 86% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

5.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.17). 97.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Carmarthenshire

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 80% in 2051Foreign-born 20% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Carmarthenshire is changing

-1.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+6.1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Carmarthenshire on UK Demographics →