Trend
-23 Latest quarter change
+200 Change across series
41 Official data points
Central Bedfordshire
203 on asylum support. Rank 141 nationally, 13 in East of England. Rate: 6.43 per 10,000 (49th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Central Bedfordshire has 203 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 141 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 6.43 per 10,000 residents places it around the 49th percentile. 151 are in contingency accommodation (74.4% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Central Bedfordshire
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 40
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 151
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 604
Afghan programme 304
Resettlement cumulative 97
Population context
All pathways total 1,111
Share of local population 0.35%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Central Bedfordshire: WBI 83.5% (2021) → 49.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2051. 80% CI: 51.3–57.2%.
Ethnic composition — Central Bedfordshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.4% (2021) → 4.1% (2051). Christian 50.6% → 11.9%.
Religion — Central Bedfordshire
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
11% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 95.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Central Bedfordshire
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Central Bedfordshire is changing
-6.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.5%
Mixed 74.2%
White Other 76.5%
Other 68.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 74.1%
Mixed 62.4%
White Other 60.2%
Other 58%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.1%
Mixed 38.5%
White Other 43.8%
Other 47.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 48,740 pupils. 74% White British. Schools are 9.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 74%
Mixed 8.5%
White Other 8%
Asian 4.8%
Black 3.8%
Other 0.9%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
26% Minority pupils now
42.3% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
203 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
6.43 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
151 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.