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East of England

Central Bedfordshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Carla Denyer
Carla DenyerGreen · Bristol Central

21 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Central Bedfordshire.

73 people on asylum support in Central Bedfordshire

Rank 204 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 2.27 per 10,000 puts Central Bedfordshire in the 29th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 6 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 31 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 73 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.9M a year.

What asylum costs Central Bedfordshire

£1.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£187Ksubsistence payments/year
£88KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 73 people on asylum support in Central Bedfordshire(0.08% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Central Bedfordshire: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

203
3542361180Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20143
Jun 20143
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20151
Jun 20171
Sept 20171
Dec 20175
Mar 20184
Jun 201811
Sept 201810
Dec 20188
Mar 201912
Jun 201912
Sept 201915
Dec 201915
Mar 202012
Jun 202010
Sept 202011
Dec 202011
Mar 202113
Jun 202115
Sept 202115
Dec 202110
Mar 20225
Jun 202210
Sept 202216
Dec 2022188
Mar 2023304
Jun 2023307
Sept 2023354
Dec 2023297
Mar 2024234
Jun 2024157
Sept 2024148
Dec 2024204
Mar 2025178
Jun 2025207
Sept 2025226
Dec 2025203

Trend

-23Latest quarter change
+200Change across series
41Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation36
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only6
Contingency accommodation31

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
73
Homes for Ukraine
626
Afghan programme
327
Resettlement cumulative
101

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine626
Afghan programme327
Resettlement cumulative101

Population context

All pathways total1,026
Share of local population0.32%

Ethnic composition projection

Central Bedfordshire: White British 83.5% (2021) to 66.4% (2051). 80% CI: 66.1, 70.1%.

Ethnic composition: Central Bedfordshire

024477195% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 58% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 6% in 2061Black 5% in 2061Mixed 15% in 2061Other 4% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Central Bedfordshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
84%
2031proj
79%
8%
2041proj
73%
10%
2051proj
66%
11%
10%
2061proj
58%
12%
15%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Central Bedfordshire ranges from62.0% to 72.4%by 2051. That is a 10.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.2% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.4% (2021) → 4.0% (2051). Christian 50.6% → 11.9%.

Religion: Central Bedfordshire

021426485%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 80% in 2051Muslim 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

11% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 95.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Central Bedfordshire

628507294%Census 2021UK-born 64% in 2051Foreign-born 37% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
asian12% internal, 5.5% international
white other14.5% internal, 2.7% international
other12% internal, 4.1% international
black13.1% internal, 2.3% international
mixed12.4% internal, 0.8% international
white british8% internal, 0.2% international

Why Central Bedfordshire is changing

-6.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Central Bedfordshire on UK Demographics →