Trend
-41 Latest quarter change
+365 Change across series
37 Official data points
Chelmsford
368 on asylum support. Rank 98 nationally, 5 in East of England. Rate: 19.49 per 10,000 (76th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Chelmsford has 368 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 98 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 19.49 per 10,000 residents places it around the 76th percentile. 352 are in contingency accommodation (95.7% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Chelmsford
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 14
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 352
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 327
Afghan programme 41
Resettlement cumulative 4
Population context
All pathways total 736
Share of local population 0.39%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Chelmsford: WBI 83.0% (2021) → 45.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 49.3–55.4%.
Ethnic composition — Chelmsford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.1% (2021) → 5.2% (2051). Christian 51.0% → 12.0%.
Religion — Chelmsford
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
11.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.39). 94.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Chelmsford
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Chelmsford is changing
-7.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.5%
Mixed 72.2%
White Other 75.8%
Other 69.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 72.9%
Mixed 52.6%
White Other 47.7%
Other 52.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.7%
Mixed 39.5%
White Other 48.6%
Other 53.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
368 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
19.49 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
352 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East of England by supported asylum.