asylumstatsFollow the money
South West

Cheltenham

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Max Wilkinson
Max WilkinsonLiberal Democrats · Cheltenham
143 people on asylum support in Cheltenham

Rank 158 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 11.77 per 10,000 puts Cheltenham in the 65th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 6 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 143 people at £107 per person per day is about £5.6M a year.

What asylum costs Cheltenham

£3.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£366Ksubsistence payments/year
£172KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 143 people on asylum support in Cheltenham(0.15% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Cheltenham: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

162
188125630Dec 2016Dec 2025Peak Jun 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20162
Mar 20172
Jun 20172
Sept 20172
Mar 20194
Jun 20196
Sept 201919
Dec 201918
Mar 202021
Jun 202022
Sept 202023
Dec 202024
Mar 202122
Jun 202121
Sept 202118
Dec 202121
Mar 202224
Jun 202223
Sept 202221
Dec 202225
Mar 202324
Jun 202397
Sept 2023120
Dec 2023110
Mar 202465
Jun 202453
Sept 202451
Dec 202460
Mar 202570
Jun 2025188
Sept 2025174
Dec 2025162

Trend

-12Latest quarter change
+160Change across series
32Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation137
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only6
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
143
Homes for Ukraine
419
Afghan programme
35
Resettlement cumulative
146

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine419
Afghan programme35
Resettlement cumulative146

Population context

All pathways total597
Share of local population0.49%

Ethnic composition projection

Cheltenham: White British 83.3% (2021) to 66.1% (2051). 80% CI: 64.9, 70.6%.

Ethnic composition: Cheltenham

023477093% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 58% in 2061White Other 14% in 2061Asian 7% in 2061Mixed 11% in 2061Other 8% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Cheltenham

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
88%
2021
83%
8%
2031proj
79%
10%
2041proj
73%
11%
2051proj
66%
13%
2061proj
58%
14%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Cheltenham ranges from49.0% to 67.0%by 2051. That is a 18.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.6% (2021) → 3.4% (2051). Christian 48.6% → 12.9%.

Religion: Cheltenham

022436586%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 81% in 2051Muslim 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 93.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Cheltenham

1030507090%Census 2021UK-born 56% in 2051Foreign-born 44% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 12% moved within UK, 1% arrived from abroad
black15.8% internal, 4.2% international
other15.4% internal, 4.5% international
mixed16.5% internal, 2.3% international
white other14.4% internal, 3.4% international
asian12.8% internal, 4.7% international
white british11.5% internal, 0.5% international

Why Cheltenham is changing

-5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.7pp
Local migration
+2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Cheltenham on UK Demographics →