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South East

Cherwell

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
106 people on asylum support in Cherwell

Rank 177 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 6.16 per 10,000 puts Cherwell in the 48th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2058. 7 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 106 people at £107 per person per day is about £4.1M a year.

What asylum costs Cherwell

£2.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£271Ksubsistence payments/year
£127KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 106 people on asylum support in Cherwell(0.11% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Cherwell: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

146
229153760Jun 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20142
Sept 20143
Dec 20142
Mar 20152
Jun 20152
Sept 20152
Dec 20152
Mar 20163
Jun 20163
Sept 20162
Dec 20162
Mar 20172
Jun 20172
Sept 20172
Dec 20172
Mar 20181
Jun 20183
Sept 20182
Dec 20181
Mar 20191
Jun 20191
Sept 20191
Dec 20191
Sept 20204
Dec 20204
Mar 20214
Jun 20214
Sept 20214
Dec 202114
Mar 202221
Jun 202224
Sept 202240
Dec 2022161
Mar 2023164
Jun 2023212
Sept 2023229
Dec 2023194
Mar 2024155
Jun 2024155
Sept 2024133
Dec 2024153
Mar 2025156
Jun 2025176
Sept 2025181
Dec 2025146

Trend

-35Latest quarter change
+144Change across series
45Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation99
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only7
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
106
Homes for Ukraine
454
Afghan programme
313
Resettlement cumulative
76

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine454
Afghan programme313
Resettlement cumulative76

Population context

All pathways total873
Share of local population0.51%

Ethnic composition projection

Cherwell: White British 77.9% (2021) to 56.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2058. 80% CI: 55.3, 60.5%.

Ethnic composition: Cherwell

023466991% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 48% in 2061White Other 18% in 2061Asian 10% in 2061Black 3% in 2061Mixed 14% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Cherwell

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
86%
2021
78%
10%
2031proj
72%
13%
2041proj
64%
16%
8%
2051proj
56%
18%
10%
9%
2061proj
48%
18%
10%
14%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Cherwell ranges from48.6% to 62.2%by 2051. That is a 13.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 53.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.4% (2021) → 5.6% (2051). Christian 53.5% → 14.5%.

Religion: Cherwell

020406080%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 75% in 2051Muslim 6% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

17.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.46). 90.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Cherwell

1331506987%Census 2021UK-born 37% in 2051Foreign-born 63% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.2% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
other16.6% internal, 5.3% international
white other16.5% internal, 3.5% international
black15.6% internal, 1.9% international
mixed13% internal, 2.1% international
asian12.3% internal, 2.6% international
white british8.9% internal, 0.4% international

Why Cherwell is changing

-8.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.5pp
Local migration
-1.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Cherwell on UK Demographics →