Trend
+30 Latest quarter change
+311 Change across series
48 Official data points
Colchester
316 on asylum support. Rank 111 nationally, 10 in East of England. Rate: 15.78 per 10,000 (70th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 East of England region
Summary
Colchester has 316 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 111 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 15.78 per 10,000 residents places it around the 70th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Colchester
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 303
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 13
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 432
Afghan programme 147
Resettlement cumulative 64
Population context
All pathways total 895
Share of local population 0.45%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Colchester: WBI 80.7% (2021) → 54.8% (2051). White British minority by ~2055. 80% CI: 49.2–55.7%.
Ethnic composition — Colchester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.2% (2021) → 2.9% (2051). Christian 47.4% → 12.6%.
Religion — Colchester
Christian No religion Hindu
Nativity
14.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.43). 93.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Colchester
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Colchester is changing
-6.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.5%
Mixed 65.5%
White Other 73.4%
Other 60.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.1%
Mixed 47.6%
White Other 44.6%
Other 41.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.9%
Mixed 35.7%
White Other 47%
Other 43.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
316 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
15.78 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.