asylumstatsFollow the money
South West

Cotswold

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-BrownConservative · North Cotswolds

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Cotswold.

0 people on asylum support in Cotswold

Rank 349 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0 per 10,000 puts Cotswold in the 4th percentile. That means fewer than most areas.

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
0
Homes for Ukraine
387
Afghan programme
4
Resettlement cumulative
16

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine387
Afghan programme4
Resettlement cumulative16

Population context

All pathways total391
Share of local population0.43%

Ethnic composition projection

Cotswold: White British 92.0% (2021) to 85.8% (2051). 80% CI: 85.5, 87.9%.

Ethnic composition: Cotswold

025507599% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 82% in 2061White Other 6% in 2061Mixed 8% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Cotswold

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
94%
2021
92%
2031proj
90%
2041proj
88%
2051proj
86%
2061proj
82%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Cotswold ranges from47.2% to 73.0%by 2051. That is a 25.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.3% (2021) → 0.3% (2051). Christian 59.3% → 16.1%.

Religion: Cotswold

1130496887%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 82% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.21). 97.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Cotswold

427507396%Census 2021UK-born 69% in 2051Foreign-born 31% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.4% moved within UK, 0.8% arrived from abroad
black18.5% internal, 4.9% international
white other15.1% internal, 3.4% international
other15.4% internal, 2.4% international
mixed15.4% internal, 2.1% international
asian11% internal, 5% international
white british10% internal, 0.5% international

Why Cotswold is changing

-2.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+5pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Cotswold on UK Demographics →