Trend
+37 Latest quarter change
+564 Change across series
41 Official data points
County Durham
566 on asylum support. Rank 60 nationally, 8 in North East. Rate: 10.52 per 10,000 (57th percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
2025-12-31 North East region
Summary
County Durham has 566 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 60 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 10.52 per 10,000 residents places it around the 57th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in County Durham
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 556
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 10
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 766
Afghan programme 224
Resettlement cumulative 341
Population context
All pathways total 1,556
Share of local population 0.29%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
County Durham: WBI 94.8% (2021) → 84.3% (2051). 80% CI: 79.6–83.7%.
Ethnic composition — County Durham
White British White Other Asian Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 0.6% (2021) → 0.7% (2051). Christian 57.6% → 8.7%.
Religion — County Durham
Christian No religion
Nativity
4.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.16). 98.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — County Durham
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why County Durham is changing
-1.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.1%
Mixed 49.7%
White Other 64.6%
Other 50.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.3%
Mixed 43.3%
White Other 46.6%
Other 37.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 33.2%
White Other 46.2%
Other 47.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 72,696 pupils. 90.9% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 90.9%
White Other 2.7%
Mixed 2.1%
Asian 1.9%
Black 1.6%
Other 0.8%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
9.1% Minority pupils now
19.9% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
Crime
82.4 crimes per 1,000 residents (56th percentile). Down 1.5% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
82.4 Per 1,000 residents
534 Hate crimes
30.1 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 388 per 10,000 pupils (44th percentile). 5-year growth: +39.4%.
Academic year 2023/24
Primary need types
Key metrics
6,842 Total EHCPs
27.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £564 per capita (68th percentile).
£564 Gross spend per capita
388 Residential per 10k 65+
18.8 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
4,218 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 54.5/100.
10.5 Asylum rate /10k
-0.18pp WB annual change
82.4 Crime /1,000
+39.4% SEND 5yr growth
£564 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
566 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
10.52 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.