Trend
+6 Latest quarter change
+224 Change across series
43 Official data points
Darlington
226 on asylum support. Rank 134 nationally, 12 in North East. Rate: 20.09 per 10,000 (76th percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
2025-12-31 North East region
Summary
Darlington has 226 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 134 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 20.09 per 10,000 residents places it around the 76th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Darlington
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 224
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 164
Afghan programme 22
Resettlement cumulative 61
Population context
All pathways total 412
Share of local population 0.37%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Darlington: WBI 90.3% (2021) → 70.3% (2051). 80% CI: 60–66.5%.
Ethnic composition — Darlington
White British White Other Asian 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.8% (2021) → 5.2% (2051). Christian 54.8% → 11.2%.
Religion — Darlington
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
7.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 95.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Darlington
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Darlington is changing
-3.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.6%
Mixed 69.5%
White Other 75.3%
Other 58.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.5%
Mixed 49.1%
White Other 38.1%
Other 34.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 28.6%
Mixed 37.4%
White Other 33.7%
Other 32.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 16,038 pupils. 80.5% White British. Schools are 9.8pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 80.5%
White Other 6.6%
Asian 4.9%
Black 3.5%
Mixed 3.3%
Other 1.3%
What this means
Schools are 10pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
19.5% Minority pupils now
28.4% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
226 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.09 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.