asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Dartford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Jim Dickson
Jim DicksonLabour · Dartford
41 people on asylum support in Dartford

Rank 242 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.25 per 10,000 puts Dartford in the 35th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2036. 9 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 41 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.6M a year.

What asylum costs Dartford

£926Kestimated hotel costs/year
£105Ksubsistence payments/year
£49KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 41 people on asylum support in Dartford(0.04% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Dartford: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

15
161150Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20144
Sept 20141
Dec 20142
Mar 20152
Jun 20155
Sept 20155
Dec 20155
Mar 20167
Jun 20167
Sept 20167
Dec 20166
Mar 20179
Jun 20179
Sept 20179
Dec 201710
Mar 20188
Jun 20188
Sept 20186
Mar 20192
Jun 20193
Sept 20193
Dec 20193
Mar 20205
Jun 20206
Sept 20207
Dec 20206
Mar 20216
Jun 20218
Sept 202110
Dec 20218
Mar 202210
Jun 20229
Sept 20229
Dec 20229
Mar 20238
Jun 20238
Sept 20238
Sept 20245
Dec 20245
Mar 202511
Jun 202516
Sept 20259
Dec 202515

Trend

+6Latest quarter change
+11Change across series
43Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation32
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only9
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
41
Homes for Ukraine
210
Afghan programme
19
Resettlement cumulative
19

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine210
Afghan programme19
Resettlement cumulative19

Population context

All pathways total270
Share of local population0.21%

Ethnic composition projection

Shown to 2051 rather than 2061. Past that point the model puts a residual Census category above a quarter of the population and several times its 2021 share, which is unconstrained compounding rather than a forecast, so those years are withheld.

Dartford: White British 67.3% (2021) to 33.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2036. 80% CI: 32.1, 37.4%.

Ethnic composition: Dartford

022446688% of populationCensus 2021White British 33% in 2051White Other 9% in 2051Asian 15% in 2051Black 29% in 2051Mixed 8% in 2051Other 6% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Dartford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
83%
2021
67%
10%
11%
2031proj
56%
8%
12%
16%
2041proj
45%
9%
14%
22%
2051proj
33%
9%
15%
29%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Dartford ranges from37.6% to 49.8%by 2051. That is a 12.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 42.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.7% (2021) → 17.4% (2051). Christian 50.8% → 12.0%.

Religion: Dartford

014284256%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 44% in 2051Muslim 17% in 2051Hindu 24% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.62). 90.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Dartford

1532506885%Census 2021UK-born 47% in 2051Foreign-born 53% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.3% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black13.5% internal, 1.5% international
other11.9% internal, 2.3% international
white other11.6% internal, 1.9% international
asian10% internal, 1.9% international
mixed8.5% internal, 0.7% international
white british6.8% internal, 0.2% international

Why Dartford is changing

-15.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.2pp
Local migration
-8.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Dartford on UK Demographics →