Trend
-120 Latest quarter change
+757 Change across series
48 Official data points
Derby
1,215 on asylum support. Rank 21 nationally, 3 in East Midlands. Rate: 44.32 per 10,000 (96th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Derby has 1,215 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 21 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 44.32 per 10,000 residents places it around the 96th percentile. 231 are in contingency accommodation (19% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Derby
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 788
Initial accommodation 176
Subsistence only 20
Contingency accommodation 231
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 274
Afghan programme 31
Resettlement cumulative 4
Population context
All pathways total 1,520
Share of local population 0.55%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Derby: WBI 66.2% (2021) → 23.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2034. 80% CI: 23.2–28.5%.
Ethnic composition — Derby
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 11.9% (2021) → 23.7% (2051). Christian 42.9% → 12.2%.
Religion — Derby
Christian No religion Muslim Sikh
Nativity
19.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.61). 87% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Derby
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.
Why Derby is changing
-9.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 58.4%
Mixed 66%
White Other 71.2%
Other 54.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.8%
Mixed 34.8%
White Other 36.2%
Other 40.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.4%
Mixed 28.9%
White Other 33.5%
Other 28.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 45,668 pupils. 48.9% White British. Schools are 17.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 48.9%
Asian 22.3%
White Other 8.9%
Mixed 8.5%
Black 8.2%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
51.1% Minority pupils now
65% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,215 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
44.32 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
231 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.