asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Dover

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Mike Tapp
Mike TappLabour · Dover and Deal
83 people on asylum support in Dover

Rank 189 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 6.86 per 10,000 puts Dover in the 53rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 83 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.2M a year.

What asylum costs Dover

£1.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£212Ksubsistence payments/year
£100KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 83 people on asylum support in Dover(0.09% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Dover: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

67
7349240Sept 2020Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20216
Dec 20216
Mar 20226
Jun 20229
Sept 20227
Dec 20223
Mar 20233
Jun 20231
Sept 202313
Dec 202313
Mar 202429
Jun 202423
Sept 202436
Dec 202430
Mar 202565
Jun 202560
Sept 202573
Dec 202567

Trend

-6Latest quarter change
+66Change across series
22Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation78
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
83
Homes for Ukraine
333
Afghan programme
174
Resettlement cumulative
52

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine333
Afghan programme174
Resettlement cumulative52

Population context

All pathways total590
Share of local population0.49%

Ethnic composition projection

Dover: White British 90.3% (2021) to 80.1% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Dover

024497398% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 74% in 2061White Other 9% in 2061Asian 3% in 2061Mixed 6% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Dover

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
93%
2021
90%
2031proj
88%
2041proj
85%
2051proj
80%
2061proj
74%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Dover ranges from52.1% to 74.1%by 2051. That is a 22pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 59.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.7% (2021) → 0.7% (2051). Christian 52.5% → 11.0%.

Religion: Dover

628497192%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 87% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 96.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Dover

327507397%Census 2021UK-born 58% in 2051Foreign-born 43% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.8% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black20.4% internal, 4.8% international
other12% internal, 5.3% international
mixed14% internal, 1.1% international
white other11.5% internal, 2% international
asian10.7% internal, 2.2% international
white british8.4% internal, 0.3% international

Why Dover is changing

-2.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+4.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Dover on UK Demographics →