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East of England

East Hertfordshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Chris Hinchliff
Chris HinchliffLabour · North East Hertfordshire

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping East Hertfordshire.

1 people on asylum support in East Hertfordshire

Rank 338 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.06 per 10,000 puts East Hertfordshire in the 5th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 1 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.0M a year.

What asylum costs East Hertfordshire

£23Kestimated hotel costs/year
£3Ksubsistence payments/year
£1KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1 people on asylum support in East Hertfordshire(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

East Hertfordshire: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Sept 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1
2110Dec 2015Sept 2025Peak Dec 2015
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20152
Mar 20162
Jun 20162
Jun 20181
Sept 20181
Dec 20181
Mar 20191
Jun 20191
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20251

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
-1Change across series
11Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1
Homes for Ukraine
446
Afghan programme
22
Resettlement cumulative
24

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine446
Afghan programme22
Resettlement cumulative24

Population context

All pathways total469
Share of local population0.3%

Ethnic composition projection

East Hertfordshire: White British 84.7% (2021) to 60.6% (2051).

Ethnic composition: East Hertfordshire

024487195% of populationCensus 2021White British 61% in 2051White Other 14% in 2051Asian 11% in 2051Black 5% in 2051Mixed 5% in 2051Other 4% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: East Hertfordshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
85%
2026proj
81%
9%
2031proj
77%
10%
2036proj
73%
11%
2041proj
69%
12%
2046proj
65%
13%
9%
2051proj
61%
14%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in East Hertfordshire ranges from54.0% to 70.7%by 2051. That is a 16.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.2% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.2% (2021) → 2.8% (2051). Christian 52.2% → 13.4%.

Religion: East Hertfordshire

828476787%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 82% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

10.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.35). 95.4% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: East Hertfordshire

628507294%Census 2021UK-born 51% in 2051Foreign-born 49% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
other15.7% internal, 3% international
black16.8% internal, 1.7% international
white other15.4% internal, 2.7% international
asian11% internal, 3.5% international
mixed12.9% internal, 1.6% international
white british8.5% internal, 0.3% international

Why East Hertfordshire is changing

-5.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+1.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View East Hertfordshire on UK Demographics →