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East Midlands

East Lindsey

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Seamus Logan
Seamus LoganSNP · Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

67 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping East Lindsey.

110 people on asylum support in East Lindsey

Rank 174 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 7.5 per 10,000 puts East Lindsey in the 55th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 12 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 110 people at £107 per person per day is about £4.3M a year.

What asylum costs East Lindsey

£2.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£281Ksubsistence payments/year
£132KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 110 people on asylum support in East Lindsey(0.12% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. 1 known hotel sites in this area.

East Lindsey: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

104
239159800Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Dec 20151
Mar 20161
Dec 20218
Mar 20228
Jun 202214
Sept 202213
Dec 2022239
Mar 2023201
Jun 2023181
Sept 2023187
Dec 2023112
Mar 202468
Jun 202413
Sept 202480
Dec 202498
Mar 202585
Jun 2025147
Sept 2025140
Dec 2025104

Trend

-36Latest quarter change
+103Change across series
20Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation97
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation12

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
110
Homes for Ukraine
336
Afghan programme
32
Resettlement cumulative
11

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine336
Afghan programme32
Resettlement cumulative11

Population context

All pathways total478
Share of local population0.33%

Ethnic composition projection

East Lindsey: White British 95.6% (2021) to 91.7% (2051).

Ethnic composition: East Lindsey

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 89% in 2061White Other 3% in 2061Mixed 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: East Lindsey

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
97%
2021
96%
2031proj
95%
2041proj
94%
2051proj
92%
2061proj
89%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in East Lindsey ranges from57.5% to 81.2%by 2051. That is a 23.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.3% (2021) → 0.3% (2051). Christian 57.3% → 11.9%.

Religion: East Lindsey

728497192%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 87% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

4.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.13). 98.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: East Lindsey

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 74% in 2051Foreign-born 26% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
other12.6% internal, 4.9% international
black14.4% internal, 1.7% international
white other10.3% internal, 3.8% international
asian11.1% internal, 2.2% international
mixed11.5% internal, 1.5% international
white british8.8% internal, 0.2% international

Why East Lindsey is changing

-1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+6.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View East Lindsey on UK Demographics →