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South East

Elmbridge

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
13 people on asylum support in Elmbridge

Rank 296 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.91 per 10,000 puts Elmbridge in the 17th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2059. 3 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 13 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.5M a year.

What asylum costs Elmbridge

£293Kestimated hotel costs/year
£33Ksubsistence payments/year
£16KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 13 people on asylum support in Elmbridge(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Elmbridge: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

25
261790Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Jun 20141
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20152
Jun 20151
Sept 20151
Dec 20151
Mar 20161
Jun 20163
Sept 20163
Dec 20163
Mar 20173
Jun 20173
Sept 20171
Dec 20171
Mar 20181
Mar 20193
Jun 20195
Sept 20192
Dec 20192
Jun 20201
Sept 20203
Dec 20205
Mar 20215
Jun 20217
Sept 20216
Dec 20215
Mar 20226
Jun 20224
Sept 20224
Dec 20225
Mar 20235
Jun 20234
Sept 20232
Mar 202511
Jun 202525
Sept 202526
Dec 202525

Trend

-1Latest quarter change
+24Change across series
39Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation10
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only3
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
13
Homes for Ukraine
813
Afghan programme
93
Resettlement cumulative
26

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine813
Afghan programme93
Resettlement cumulative26

Population context

All pathways total919
Share of local population0.64%

Ethnic composition projection

Elmbridge: White British 74.1% (2021) to 56.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2059. 80% CI: 55.3, 59.8%.

Ethnic composition: Elmbridge

021426485% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 48% in 2061White Other 11% in 2061Asian 9% in 2061Mixed 21% in 2061Other 8% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Elmbridge

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
80%
10%
2021
74%
12%
2031proj
69%
13%
2041proj
63%
13%
8%
9%
2051proj
56%
12%
9%
14%
2061proj
48%
11%
9%
21%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Elmbridge ranges from45.2% to 59.8%by 2051. That is a 14.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 50.7% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.7% (2021) → 4.1% (2051). Christian 55.5% → 16.9%.

Religion: Elmbridge

020406080%Census 2021Christian 17% in 2051No religion 75% in 2051Muslim 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

21.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 93.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Elmbridge

1633506784%Census 2021UK-born 44% in 2051Foreign-born 56% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.5% moved within UK, 1.2% arrived from abroad
white other13.2% internal, 3.4% international
other13.4% internal, 3.1% international
black11.9% internal, 3.9% international
mixed13.6% internal, 1.7% international
asian10% internal, 2.5% international
white british8.5% internal, 0.6% international

Why Elmbridge is changing

-5.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
0pp
Local migration
+0.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Elmbridge on UK Demographics →