Trend
-74 Latest quarter change
+161 Change across series
47 Official data points
Epping Forest
173 on asylum support. Rank 158 nationally, 17 in East of England. Rate: 12.59 per 10,000 (60th percentile). 2 named hotel sites. Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Epping Forest has 173 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 158 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 12.59 per 10,000 residents places it around the 60th percentile. 147 are in contingency accommodation (85% of total). 2 named hotel sites are publicly documented. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Epping Forest
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 22
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 4
Contingency accommodation 147
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 417
Afghan programme 31
Resettlement cumulative 27
Population context
All pathways total 621
Share of local population 0.45%
Hotel evidence
2 named sites publicly documented.
Ethnic composition projection
Epping Forest: WBI 75.6% (2021) → 34.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2040. 80% CI: 34.2–39.8%.
Ethnic composition — Epping Forest
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 3.7% (2021) → 12.2% (2051). Christian 52.6% → 14.6%.
Religion — Epping Forest
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
13.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 94% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Epping Forest
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Epping Forest is changing
-9.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 61.3%
Mixed 71.7%
White Other 75.6%
Other 69.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 71.8%
Mixed 58.3%
White Other 57%
Other 70.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.5%
Mixed 37.6%
White Other 46.3%
Other 44.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
173 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
12.59 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
147 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.