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South West

Forest of Dean

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Matt Bishop
Matt BishopLabour · Forest of Dean
6 people on asylum support in Forest of Dean

Rank 315 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.67 per 10,000 puts Forest of Dean in the 15th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 6 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.2M a year.

What asylum costs Forest of Dean

£135Kestimated hotel costs/year
£15Ksubsistence payments/year
£7KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 6 people on asylum support in Forest of Dean(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Forest of Dean: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

6
6420Dec 2017Dec 2025Peak Jun 2025Bibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20171
Mar 20181
Jun 20181
Sept 20181
Sept 20231
Jun 20245
Sept 20245
Dec 20245
Mar 20255
Jun 20256
Sept 20256
Dec 20256

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
+5Change across series
12Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation5
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
6
Homes for Ukraine
304
Afghan programme
16
Resettlement cumulative
24

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine304
Afghan programme16
Resettlement cumulative24

Population context

All pathways total326
Share of local population0.36%

Ethnic composition projection

Forest of Dean: White British 94.7% (2021) to 89.0% (2051). 80% CI: 89, 91%.

Ethnic composition: Forest of Dean

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 86% in 2061White Other 6% in 2061Mixed 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Forest of Dean

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
97%
2021
95%
2031proj
93%
2041proj
92%
2051proj
89%
2061proj
86%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Forest of Dean ranges from49.0% to 76.3%by 2051. That is a 27.2pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 58.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.3% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 54.0% → 10.7%.

Religion: Forest of Dean

627497193%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 88% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

5.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.15). 98.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Forest of Dean

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 70% in 2051Foreign-born 30% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.4% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black16% internal, 2.1% international
mixed16% internal, 1.7% international
asian15.2% internal, 1.8% international
white other13.4% internal, 3.2% international
other14% internal, 2.3% international
white british8.1% internal, 0.3% international

Why Forest of Dean is changing

-2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+5.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Forest of Dean on UK Demographics →