asylumstatsFollow the money
East Midlands

Gedling

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Michael Payne
Michael PayneLabour · Gedling
121 people on asylum support in Gedling

Rank 169 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.99 per 10,000 puts Gedling in the 61st percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 121 people at £107 per person per day is about £4.7M a year.

What asylum costs Gedling

£2.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£309Ksubsistence payments/year
£145KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 121 people on asylum support in Gedling(0.13% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Gedling: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

63
6342210Mar 2015Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20151
Dec 20172
Mar 20182
Sept 20186
Dec 20186
Mar 20196
Sept 20194
Dec 20194
Mar 20209
Jun 20206
Sept 20205
Dec 20209
Mar 20218
Jun 20216
Sept 20218
Dec 20219
Mar 20229
Jun 202211
Sept 202214
Dec 202214
Mar 202314
Jun 202313
Sept 202317
Dec 202310
Mar 202421
Jun 202418
Sept 202415
Dec 202416
Mar 202520
Jun 202528
Sept 202562
Dec 202563

Trend

+1Latest quarter change
+62Change across series
32Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation116
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
121
Homes for Ukraine
206
Afghan programme
53
Resettlement cumulative
52

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine206
Afghan programme53
Resettlement cumulative52

Population context

All pathways total380
Share of local population0.31%

Ethnic composition projection

Gedling: White British 85.5% (2021) to 67.0% (2051). 80% CI: 66.6, 71.1%.

Ethnic composition: Gedling

024487195% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 57% in 2061White Other 6% in 2061Asian 8% in 2061Black 5% in 2061Mixed 18% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Gedling

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
86%
2031proj
81%
2041proj
75%
2051proj
67%
12%
2061proj
57%
18%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Gedling ranges from49.0% to 68.6%by 2051. That is a 19.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.2% (2021) → 4.5% (2051). Christian 44.9% → 9.7%.

Religion: Gedling

022446688%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 83% in 2051Muslim 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

7.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.35). 96.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Gedling

326507497%Census 2021UK-born 60% in 2051Foreign-born 40% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.5% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black12.6% internal, 1.4% international
mixed12% internal, 0.6% international
white other10.5% internal, 1.6% international
other10% internal, 1.4% international
asian8.4% internal, 1.5% international
white british7% internal, 0.1% international

Why Gedling is changing

-4.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+2.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Gedling on UK Demographics →