Trend
-17 Latest quarter change
+297 Change across series
48 Official data points
Gloucester
388 on asylum support. Rank 92 nationally, 5 in South West. Rate: 27.99 per 10,000 (85th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Gloucester has 388 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 92 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 27.99 per 10,000 residents places it around the 85th percentile. 121 are in contingency accommodation (31.2% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Gloucester
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 255
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 12
Contingency accommodation 121
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 226
Afghan programme 90
Resettlement cumulative 152
Population context
All pathways total 704
Share of local population 0.51%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Gloucester: WBI 78.0% (2021) → 52.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2053. 80% CI: 45.3–52%.
Ethnic composition — Gloucester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 5.0% (2021) → 8.2% (2051). Christian 50.7% → 11.8%.
Religion — Gloucester
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
14.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.47). 92% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Gloucester
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Gloucester is changing
-6.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.4%
Mixed 72.2%
White Other 76.4%
Other 59.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.8%
Mixed 39.4%
White Other 39.2%
Other 38.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27%
Mixed 25.7%
White Other 33.2%
Other 29.3%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
388 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
27.99 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
121 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South West by supported asylum.