asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Gravesham

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Lauren Sullivan
Dr Lauren SullivanLabour · Gravesham
71 people on asylum support in Gravesham

Rank 207 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 6.38 per 10,000 puts Gravesham in the 49th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2040. 7 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 71 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.8M a year.

What asylum costs Gravesham

£1.6Mestimated hotel costs/year
£182Ksubsistence payments/year
£85KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 71 people on asylum support in Gravesham(0.08% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Gravesham: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

136
13691450Jun 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20143
Sept 20143
Dec 20143
Mar 20153
Dec 20151
Mar 20162
Jun 20162
Sept 20165
Dec 20167
Mar 20174
Jun 20173
Sept 20173
Dec 20173
Mar 20183
Jun 20183
Sept 20182
Dec 20182
Mar 20192
Jun 20191
Sept 201915
Dec 201914
Mar 202015
Jun 202015
Sept 202016
Dec 202016
Mar 202117
Jun 202129
Sept 202128
Dec 202127
Mar 202228
Jun 202221
Sept 202221
Dec 202221
Mar 202387
Jun 202397
Sept 202384
Dec 202374
Mar 202467
Jun 202493
Sept 202498
Dec 202492
Mar 2025116
Jun 2025113
Sept 2025121
Dec 2025136

Trend

+15Latest quarter change
+133Change across series
45Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation64
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only7
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
71
Homes for Ukraine
191
Afghan programme
21
Resettlement cumulative
11

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine191
Afghan programme21
Resettlement cumulative11

Population context

All pathways total283
Share of local population0.25%

Ethnic composition projection

Gravesham: White British 68.3% (2021) to 37.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2040. 80% CI: 36.2, 41.5%.

Ethnic composition: Gravesham

021416282% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 28% in 2061White Other 15% in 2061Asian 11% in 2061Black 24% in 2061Mixed 10% in 2061Other 12% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Gravesham

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
77%
10%
2021
68%
8%
11%
2031proj
59%
10%
12%
10%
2041proj
48%
12%
12%
14%
2051proj
38%
14%
12%
19%
10%
2061proj
28%
15%
11%
24%
10%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Gravesham ranges from36.6% to 50.2%by 2051. That is a 13.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 41.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.3% (2021) → 8.8% (2051). Christian 51.9% → 15.9%.

Religion: Gravesham

018355371%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 66% in 2051Muslim 9% in 2051Sikh 6% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimSikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.61). 88.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Gravesham

1432506886%Census 2021UK-born 34% in 2051Foreign-born 66% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.4% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other11.9% internal, 1.8% international
black12.5% internal, 1.2% international
mixed10.5% internal, 0.8% international
asian7.6% internal, 0.9% international
other6.7% internal, 1.5% international
white british6.2% internal, 0.2% international

Why Gravesham is changing

-8.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.2pp
Local migration
-2.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Gravesham on UK Demographics →