asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Guildford

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Zöe Franklin
Zöe FranklinLiberal Democrats · Guildford
1 people on asylum support in Guildford

Rank 339 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.07 per 10,000 puts Guildford in the 5th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 1 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.0M a year.

What asylum costs Guildford

£23Kestimated hotel costs/year
£3Ksubsistence payments/year
£1KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1 people on asylum support in Guildford(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Guildford: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

2
180120600Sept 2015Dec 2025Peak Mar 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20153
Dec 20153
Mar 20164
Jun 201611
Sept 20168
Dec 201611
Mar 201711
Jun 20178
Sept 20178
Dec 20179
Mar 20185
Jun 20184
Sept 20185
Dec 20184
Mar 20194
Jun 20195
Sept 20194
Dec 20196
Mar 20202
Jun 20202
Sept 20202
Dec 20203
Mar 20213
Jun 20213
Sept 20213
Dec 20213
Mar 20223
Jun 202220
Sept 202220
Dec 2022176
Mar 2023180
Jun 2023152
Sept 2023163
Mar 20252
Jun 20253
Sept 20252
Dec 20252

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
-1Change across series
37Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1
Homes for Ukraine
680
Afghan programme
49
Resettlement cumulative
48

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine680
Afghan programme49
Resettlement cumulative48

Population context

All pathways total730
Share of local population0.48%

Ethnic composition projection

Guildford: White British 77.3% (2021) to 59.9% (2051). 80% CI: 58.9, 64.8%.

Ethnic composition: Guildford

022446688% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 53% in 2061White Other 13% in 2061Asian 10% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 10% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Guildford

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
83%
2021
77%
10%
2031proj
72%
11%
2041proj
66%
12%
9%
2051proj
60%
13%
9%
9%
2061proj
53%
13%
10%
12%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Guildford ranges from47.2% to 61.2%by 2051. That is a 14pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 52.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.3% (2021) → 1.9% (2051). Christian 51.8% → 16.4%.

Religion: Guildford

1129476482%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 77% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.47). 91.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Guildford

1432506886%Census 2021UK-born 35% in 2051Foreign-born 65% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 13.8% moved within UK, 1.9% arrived from abroad
black28.5% internal, 6.8% international
asian22.2% internal, 10.4% international
other19% internal, 7.1% international
white other16.9% internal, 5.4% international
mixed19.6% internal, 2.4% international
white british12.1% internal, 0.5% international

Why Guildford is changing

-6.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.3pp
Local migration
+0.5pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Guildford on UK Demographics →