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East of England

Harlow

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Chris Vince
Chris VinceLabour (Co-op) · Harlow
56 people on asylum support in Harlow

Rank 226 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 5.68 per 10,000 puts Harlow in the 47th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2046. 6 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 56 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.2M a year.

What asylum costs Harlow

£1.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£143Ksubsistence payments/year
£67KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 56 people on asylum support in Harlow(0.06% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Harlow: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

67
9362310Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Jun 20141
Sept 20142
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20153
Sept 20153
Dec 20152
Mar 20181
Jun 20181
Sept 20182
Dec 20181
Mar 20191
Jun 20196
Sept 201917
Dec 201919
Mar 202027
Jun 202028
Sept 202032
Dec 202032
Mar 202134
Jun 202148
Sept 202159
Dec 202151
Mar 202258
Jun 202253
Sept 202263
Dec 202259
Mar 202356
Jun 202393
Sept 202378
Dec 202370
Mar 202483
Jun 202480
Sept 202479
Dec 202472
Mar 202565
Jun 202578
Sept 202572
Dec 202567

Trend

-5Latest quarter change
+66Change across series
40Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation50
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only6
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
56
Homes for Ukraine
141
Afghan programme
25
Resettlement cumulative
6

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine141
Afghan programme25
Resettlement cumulative6

Population context

All pathways total222
Share of local population0.23%

Ethnic composition projection

Harlow: White British 72.9% (2021) to 45.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2046. 80% CI: 44.4, 50.4%.

Ethnic composition: Harlow

022446789% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 36% in 2061White Other 19% in 2061Asian 10% in 2061Black 15% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 9% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Harlow

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
84%
2021
73%
10%
2031proj
64%
13%
8%
2041proj
55%
16%
10%
2051proj
45%
18%
9%
13%
9%
2061proj
36%
19%
10%
15%
12%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Harlow ranges from38.8% to 54.4%by 2051. That is a 15.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 44.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 4.2% (2021) → 17.8% (2051). Christian 47.3% → 16.2%.

Religion: Harlow

017345168%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 63% in 2051Muslim 18% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

18.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.55). 89.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Harlow

1332506887%Census 2021UK-born 36% in 2051Foreign-born 64% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.4% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
other15.3% internal, 2% international
asian12.3% internal, 4.8% international
white other13.6% internal, 1.7% international
black12.6% internal, 2.1% international
mixed10.9% internal, 0.6% international
white british6.8% internal, 0.1% international

Why Harlow is changing

-11pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.3pp
Local migration
-4.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Harlow on UK Demographics →