Trend
-26 Latest quarter change
+272 Change across series
48 Official data points
Hartlepool
405 on asylum support. Rank 88 nationally, 10 in North East. Rate: 41.25 per 10,000 (94th percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
2025-12-31 North East region
Summary
Hartlepool has 405 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 88 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 41.25 per 10,000 residents places it around the 94th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Hartlepool
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 405
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 109
Afghan programme 182
Resettlement cumulative 213
Population context
All pathways total 696
Share of local population 0.71%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Hartlepool: WBI 95.0% (2021) → 93.0% (2051). 80% CI: 80.8–84.8%.
Ethnic composition — Hartlepool
White British 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 1.4% (2021) → 2.7% (2051). Christian 55.4% → 8.4%.
Religion — Hartlepool
Christian No religion
Nativity
4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.15). 97.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Hartlepool
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Hartlepool is changing
-1.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.5%
Mixed 53.3%
White Other 66.5%
Other 38.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.3%
Mixed 38.7%
White Other 40.3%
Other 30.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.6%
Mixed 30.3%
White Other 35.3%
Other 22.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 14,975 pupils. 88.5% White British. Schools are 6.5pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 88.5%
Black 3.2%
Asian 3%
White Other 2.1%
Mixed 1.9%
Other 1.1%
What this means
Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
11.5% Minority pupils now
15.6% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
405 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
41.25 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in North East by supported asylum.