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West Midlands

Herefordshire, County of

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Jesse Norman
Jesse NormanConservative · Hereford and South Herefordshire

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Herefordshire, County of.

25 people on asylum support in Herefordshire, County of

Rank 265 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 1.3 per 10,000 puts Herefordshire, County of in the 21st percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 9 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 25 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.0M a year.

What asylum costs Herefordshire, County of

£564Kestimated hotel costs/year
£64Ksubsistence payments/year
£30KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 25 people on asylum support in Herefordshire, County of(0.03% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Herefordshire, County of: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

19
172115570Jun 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20142
Sept 20142
Sept 20171
Dec 20171
Mar 20182
Jun 20182
Sept 20181
Sept 20211
Dec 20211
Mar 20221
Jun 20221
Sept 20221
Dec 20222
Mar 202338
Jun 202399
Sept 2023172
Dec 2023136
Mar 20251
Jun 20253
Sept 202512
Dec 202519

Trend

+7Latest quarter change
+17Change across series
21Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation16
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only9
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
25
Homes for Ukraine
1,042
Afghan programme
166
Resettlement cumulative
95

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,042
Afghan programme166
Resettlement cumulative95

Population context

All pathways total1,233
Share of local population0.64%

Ethnic composition projection

Herefordshire, County of: White British 91.1% (2021) to 80.1% (2051). 80% CI: 79.9, 83.2%.

Ethnic composition: Herefordshire, County of

025497499% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 74% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Mixed 6% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Herefordshire, County of

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
94%
2021
91%
2031proj
89%
2041proj
85%
9%
2051proj
80%
11%
2061proj
74%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Herefordshire, County of ranges from59.9% to 77.5%by 2051. That is a 17.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 66.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.9% (2051). Christian 59.0% → 15.5%.

Religion: Herefordshire, County of

1130486786%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 81% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.22). 95.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Herefordshire, County of

427507396%Census 2021UK-born 70% in 2051Foreign-born 30% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
asian16.9% internal, 9.1% international
black21.2% internal, 4.4% international
mixed14.6% internal, 1.5% international
other12.2% internal, 3.9% international
white other10.5% internal, 2.8% international
white british8.6% internal, 0.3% international

Why Herefordshire, County of is changing

-2.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.1pp
Local migration
+4.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Herefordshire, County of on UK Demographics →