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East of England

Hertsmere

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sir Oliver Dowden
Sir Oliver DowdenConservative · Hertsmere
58 people on asylum support in Hertsmere

Rank 224 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 5.26 per 10,000 puts Hertsmere in the 45th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2033. 15 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 58 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.3M a year.

What asylum costs Hertsmere

£1.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£148Ksubsistence payments/year
£70KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 58 people on asylum support in Hertsmere(0.06% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Hertsmere: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

45
7550250Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20147
Jun 20147
Sept 20147
Dec 20147
Mar 20155
Jun 20154
Sept 20154
Dec 20154
Mar 20164
Jun 20164
Sept 201610
Dec 20168
Mar 20175
Jun 20175
Sept 20176
Dec 20175
Mar 20185
Jun 20186
Sept 20186
Dec 20183
Mar 20193
Jun 20196
Sept 20196
Dec 20197
Mar 20207
Jun 202010
Sept 202013
Dec 202015
Mar 202115
Jun 202117
Sept 202118
Dec 202126
Mar 202225
Jun 202225
Sept 202234
Dec 202275
Mar 202373
Jun 202366
Sept 202353
Dec 20232
Mar 202412
Jun 20242
Sept 20242
Dec 20242
Mar 202519
Jun 202532
Sept 202534
Dec 202545

Trend

+11Latest quarter change
+38Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation43
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only15
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
58
Homes for Ukraine
261
Afghan programme
70
Resettlement cumulative
10

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine261
Afghan programme70
Resettlement cumulative10

Population context

All pathways total389
Share of local population0.35%

Ethnic composition projection

Hertsmere: White British 63.1% (2021) to 30.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2033. 80% CI: 29.7, 34.3%.

Ethnic composition: Hertsmere

020406181% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 22% in 2061White Other 23% in 2061Asian 18% in 2061Black 6% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 19% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Hertsmere

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
76%
9%
2021
63%
14%
10%
2031proj
52%
17%
13%
2041proj
41%
20%
15%
10%
2051proj
31%
22%
17%
9%
14%
2061proj
22%
23%
18%
12%
19%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Hertsmere ranges from33.6% to 45.9%by 2051. That is a 12.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 38.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 4.0% (2021) → 10.5% (2051). Christian 44.6% → 16.1%.

Religion: Hertsmere

012253750%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 36% in 2051Muslim 11% in 2051Hindu 14% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

22.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.67). 89.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Hertsmere

1834506682%Census 2021UK-born 42% in 2051Foreign-born 58% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.2% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
white other12% internal, 1.8% international
asian11.2% internal, 1.5% international
other10.9% internal, 1.4% international
black10% internal, 1.7% international
mixed9.7% internal, 0.6% international
white british6.5% internal, 0.2% international

Why Hertsmere is changing

-12.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
+0.3pp
Local migration
-6.6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Hertsmere on UK Demographics →