asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Horsham

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
John Milne
John MilneLiberal Democrats · Horsham
4 people on asylum support in Horsham

Rank 327 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.26 per 10,000 puts Horsham in the 9th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 4 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 4 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.2M a year.

What asylum costs Horsham

£90Kestimated hotel costs/year
£10Ksubsistence payments/year
£5KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 4 people on asylum support in Horsham(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Horsham: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

93
168112560Dec 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20142
Mar 20152
Jun 20152
Sept 20152
Dec 20152
Dec 20182
Mar 20192
Jun 20193
Sept 20193
Dec 20193
Mar 20203
Jun 20201
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20211
Dec 20211
Jun 20221
Sept 20221
Dec 20221
Mar 2023112
Jun 2023168
Sept 2023165
Dec 2023155
Mar 202498
Jun 2024145
Sept 2024139
Dec 2024138
Mar 2025113
Jun 2025113
Sept 2025141
Dec 202593

Trend

-48Latest quarter change
+91Change across series
33Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only4
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
4
Homes for Ukraine
579
Afghan programme
123
Resettlement cumulative
40

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine579
Afghan programme123
Resettlement cumulative40

Population context

All pathways total706
Share of local population0.46%

Ethnic composition projection

Horsham: White British 88.2% (2021) to 78.1% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Horsham

024497397% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 73% in 2061White Other 9% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Mixed 9% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Horsham

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
92%
2021
88%
2031proj
86%
2041proj
83%
2051proj
78%
8%
2061proj
73%
9%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Horsham ranges from54.6% to 73.4%by 2051. That is a 18.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 61.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.9% (2021) → 2.0% (2051). Christian 52.5% → 11.9%.

Religion: Horsham

727476888%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 83% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

10.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 96.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Horsham

528507295%Census 2021UK-born 65% in 2051Foreign-born 35% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black20.4% internal, 3.2% international
other15.1% internal, 3.9% international
asian12.3% internal, 4.6% international
white other13.2% internal, 2.8% international
mixed12.8% internal, 1.1% international
white british8.9% internal, 0.4% international

Why Horsham is changing

-4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+3.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Horsham on UK Demographics →