Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0
Isle of Wight
Joe Robertson
2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Isle of Wight.
0 people on asylum support in Isle of Wight
Rank 353 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0 per 10,000 puts Isle of Wight in the 4th percentile. That means fewer than most areas.
Local numbers
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine335
Afghan programme11
Resettlement cumulative32
Population context
All pathways total346
Share of local population0.25%
Ethnic composition projection
Isle of Wight: White British 93.8% (2021) to 89.5% (2051). 80% CI: 89.2, 91%.
Ethnic composition: Isle of Wight
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Isle of Wight
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Isle of Wight ranges from56.7% to 79.6%by 2051. That is a 22.9pp spread.
Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 64.9% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.4% (2051). Christian 51.0% → 13.8%.
Religion: Isle of Wight
ChristianNo religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
6.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.17). 98.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Isle of Wight
UK-bornForeign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.6% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black18.8% internal, 8.1% international
asian12.2% internal, 7.3% international
other13% internal, 6.1% international
white other12.1% internal, 2.5% international
mixed11.7% internal, 1% international
white british9.4% internal, 0.3% international
Why Isle of Wight is changing
-1.1ppWhite British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Isle of Wight on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British50.8%
Mixed60.3%
White Other63.7%
Other58.6%
Homeownership rate
White British68.9%
Mixed54.4%
White Other59.1%
Other54.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British26.7%
Mixed30.8%
White Other45.2%
Other45%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 15,949 pupils. 88.5% White British. Schools are 5.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British88.5%
Mixed4.3%
White Other2.9%
Asian2.1%
Black1.6%
Other0.5%
What this means
Schools are 5pp more diverse than the general population (schools show the future).
11.5%Minority pupils now
17.8%Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
90.3%Primary WBI
86.3%Secondary WBI
Slowing diversification. Primary schools are less diverse than secondary.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -0.23pp/year. Gradual diversification in school-age population.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Compared with Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 92.1% vs school 88.5% (-3.6pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
0National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
0Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.