Trend
-67 Latest quarter change
+855 Change across series
48 Official data points
Leicester
1,512 on asylum support. Rank 12 nationally, 2 in East Midlands. Rate: 38.93 per 10,000 (93rd percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Leicester has 1,512 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 12 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 38.93 per 10,000 residents places it around the 93rd percentile. 328 are in contingency accommodation (21.7% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Leicester
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,158
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 26
Contingency accommodation 328
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 268
Afghan programme 97
Resettlement cumulative 205
Population context
All pathways total 1,877
Share of local population 0.48%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Leicester: WBI 33.2% (2021) → 8.0% (2051). 80% CI: 6.9–9.4%.
Ethnic composition — Leicester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 24.8% (2021) → 40.4% (2051). Christian 26.2% → 9.5%.
Religion — Leicester
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Nativity
41.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.76). 70% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Leicester
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Leicester is changing
-11.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.9%
Mixed 58.3%
White Other 73.8%
Other 55.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 50.5%
Mixed 25.6%
White Other 26.1%
Other 33%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 29%
White Other 30.5%
Other 29.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 59,741 pupils. 20.5% White British. Schools are 12.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 49.4%
White British 20.5%
Black 11%
Mixed 8.2%
White Other 7.9%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
79.5% Minority pupils now
87.7% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,512 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
38.93 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
328 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.