Trend
-67 Latest quarter change
+855 Change across series
48 Official data points
Leicester
Shivani Raja
6 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Leicester.
1,370 people housed on asylum support in Leicester
Rank 12 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 35.28 per 10,000 puts Leicester in the 94th percentile. That means this area carries more asylum seekers per head than 90% of the country. 215 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £75M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Leicester
£27.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£3.5Msubsistence payments/year
£1.6MLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 1,370 people on asylum support in Leicester (1.28% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Leicester: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,130
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 25
Contingency accommodation 215
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 276
Afghan programme 101
Resettlement cumulative 205
Population context
All pathways total 1,747
Share of local population 0.45%
Ethnic composition projection
Leicester: WBI 33.2% (2021) → 8.4% (2051). 80% CI: 8–9.9%.
Ethnic composition: Leicester
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Leicester
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Leicester ranges from 22.1% to 24.5% by 2051. That is a 2.4pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 23.1% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 24.8% (2021) → 40.4% (2051). Christian 26.2% → 9.5%.
Religion: Leicester
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
41.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.77). 70% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Leicester
UK-born Foreign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Census 2021 mobility: 9.7% moved within UK, 1.9% arrived from abroad
white other 14.1% internal, 4.8% international
black 12.6% internal, 2.6% international
other 10.5% internal, 4.3% international
mixed 11.5% internal, 1.4% international
asian 8.2% internal, 2.4% international
white british 9.6% internal, 0.2% international
Why Leicester is changing
-11.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Leicester on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 56.9%
Mixed 58.3%
White Other 73.8%
Other 55.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 50.5%
Mixed 25.6%
White Other 26.1%
Other 33%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 29%
White Other 30.5%
Other 29.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 59,741 pupils. 20.5% White British. Schools are 12.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 49.4%
White British 20.5%
Black 11%
Mixed 8.2%
White Other 7.9%
Other 3%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
79.5% Minority pupils now
87.7% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
20.3% Primary WBI
19.6% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Fertility proxy (10-year school trend): WBI share in primary schools changing at -1.06pp/year. Rapid diversification in young cohorts. The demographic wave is accelerating.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level. Validated against Census 2021 ages 4-15: Census WBI 26.4% vs school 20.5% (-5.9pp gap).
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,370 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
35.28 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
215 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.